Each year at this time of, that long and winding road that Paul McCartney and the Beatles sang about back in 1970 should be offered up as a reminder to everyone scrutinizing every minuscule detail on the path to the Kentucky Derby.
The Run for the Roses is still more than two months away and to place too much emphasis on the result of races that are still penultimate preps may not be the wisest of ideas.
The stakes were raised Saturday when the points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series were elevated to 50-20-10-5 for the first four finishers in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and Risen Star at Fair Grounds, and the results certainly sparked a considerable share of debate.
The Fountain of Youth had the better field and generated the most controversy. Ralph M. Evans' Upstart was sent off as a 4-5 favorite off an impressive 5 ½-length romp for trainer Rick Violette in his 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull and in one regard he lived up to his reputation by crossing the wire first. How he managed to do that was the problem.
In the stretch run, as Upstart and jockey Jose Ortiz moved past the tiring Frosted to take the lead, there was some drifting. It may have been initiated by Frosted, but it resulted with Upstart bumping into the oncoming Itsaknockout. A few strides later, as Upstart continued to drift, he bumped into the Todd Pletcher-trained colt again as jockey Luis Saez stood up in his irons and checked Itsaknockout.
Upstart then drew off to win by 2 ¾ lengths over Itsaknockout, but the ridgling never made it to the winner's circle as the stewards called for an inquiry.
There were those on Twitter who postured that Saez sold the DQ and Itsaknockout was not going to pass Upstart. Pletcher called it a "jump ball" and Violette wanted a no-harm, no-foul call. The stewards had the final say and decided to disqualify Upstart to second and declare Itsaknockout the winner by a TKO of sorts.
"Bad call," Violette said. "I really think it didn't alter the outcome. Just the stewards did."
The victory impacted the bettors who lost on Upstart and collected on Itsaknockout, the 5-1 second choice, and it put the $240,560 winner's share of purse in Starlight Racing's bank account instead of second-place money of $77,600.
Yet in terms of earning points to start in the Kentucky Derby, the switch had only a marginal impact. It guaranteed Itsaknockout of a spot in the starting gate with 50 points, though 20 points might also work as it did in Year One of the format. Upstart now has 36 points and his connections can breathe easily. There will be a spot for him at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
Much more than the impact on the points race, the Fountain of Youth had a greater impact in turning Upstart into a digital dartboard. Though he was clear at the wire, the final time was just 1:46.28 and he ran the final furlong in a lackluster 7.20 seconds.
Each marked a regression from his times in the Holy Bull (1:43.61, 6.55), yet before anyone rips up a future wager on the New York State-bred, remember the Beatles tune. Gulfstream's main track may have been turned into a slow, tiring treadmill due to a gap of about an hour and a half between dirt races. There's also one more prep for Upstart, be it the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and a solid effort will put Saturday's race squarely in the rearview mirror.
The last three years have helped to obscure the notion that prep races are not akin to rounds in a tournament. California Chrome , Orb and I'll Have Another may have come into the Derby with perfect 3-year-old records, but in the 22 editions prior to that only four winners of the Run for the Roses did not lose a race at 3-years-old.
Horses can indeed stumble, bump or register a slower than expected time and still win the Kentucky Derby. It's happened before and can surely happen again. So hang on to those future wager tickets for a while, especially if you took Upstart at 53-1 in the first pool.
Itsaknockout ran huge, regardless of whether he's considered the official winner or the second horse across the wire. In just his third career start, he faced an acid test and handled it well in giving Pletcher yet another Derby option. How much the bumping cost him is debatable now, but more will be known in his next start, which figures to be the Florida Derby over a racetrack where he's 3-for-3.
He raced at two, so that 133-year jinx will not come into play, but he'll need another strong effort before he can be considered as a top-rung Run for the Roses candidate along the same lines of a seasoned, battle tested rival like Upstart, who raced in Grade 1 events like the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Champagne at two.
Frosted provided the biggest disappointment. He was second to Upstart in the Holy Bull and at the top of the stretch of the Fountain of Youth, the 7-2 second choice appeared to be cruising on the lead. Yet no sooner did track announcer Larry Collmus proclaim, "Frosted is looking good" than Frosted hit a wall. First Upstart and then Itsaknockout went past as he faded to fourth, nearly five lengths behind Upstart.
"We'll have to go back to the drawing board, because he looked like a winner," trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said.
A better understanding of what happened in the Fountain of Youth could come from Frammento. He was beaten 18 ¾ lengths by Upstart in the Holy Bull, explaining why he was sent off at 63-1 odds in the Fountain of Youth. Yet on Saturday, he was closing best of all at the end and wound up third, just 4 ½ lengths behind.
He could be a colt who is developing at the right time for two-time Derby winning trainer Nick Zito, or he could be a reflection of how Upstart is tailing off. It could also be a fluky effort on a funky track. Time will tell.
The Risen Star proved to be a replay of Fair Grounds' LeComte as the 1-2 finishers in that race - International Star and War Story - crossed the finish line in the same order. The only change was that International Star's margin of victory was sliced from 2 ½ lengths to one.
The Risen Star also featured a claim of foul against the winner by the runner-up, but this time a New York State-bred was not taken down.
The back-to-back stakes wins skyrocketed International Star to the top of the points chase with 71 points and punched the son of Fusaichi Pegasus' ticket Louisville for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey. War Story jumped to 24 points.
What remains to be seen is how they stack up against the best horses from the East and West.
A measuring sick might be Keen Ice, who gained ground late to finish third in the Risen Star, 2 ¾ lengths behind. In his previous race, Keen Ice lost by 10 ½ lengths to Upstart in the Holy Bull. Doing the math, that could mean the Fair Grounds horses are about eight lengths behind the Florida contingent.
Of course, it's never that easy, especially on the road to the Kentucky Derby. As McCartney would say, "yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah."