• 3-year-old stakes offer look into the 'future'

  • By Bob Ehalt | February 6, 2015 11:28:45 AM PST

On a weekend without the interference of the NFL, when a collection of racing's top older stars will rightfully command the bulk of attention, it should also be noted that the Kentucky Derby is just three months away -- and counting.

All of which means that on Saturday, while Shared Belief and California Chrome are slugging it out in the San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita and Lea is squaring off against the likes of Commissioner, Protonico and Constitution in the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream, a pair of bi-coastal 3-year-old Grade 3 stakes also deserve at least a modicum of attention.

Both the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita and the $250,000 Withers Stakes at frigid Aqueduct figure to carry added meaning this weekend since the second edition of Kentucky Derby future wagering will be offered through Sunday.

Of course, whatever happens in either race will have no bearing on where the bulk of money in the future wager pool will land since the absolutely safest prediction anyone can make this year is that the mutuel field will be an overwhelming choice. The bet consists of 24 wagering options comprised of 23 top candidates to win the Derby and a 24th choice that consists of every other 3-year-old. Given the Alamo-like odds stacked against the 23, getting 2-1 or more on the gargantuan mutuel field would be a tremendous bargain.

In last year's future wagering, the field was a 3-2 choice in the early February pool. The impact on future wagering will instead center on the 23 individual entries.

Dortmund, the 4-5 favorite in a field of six in the Robert B. Lewis, was the 9-1 favorite among the 23 in a pool that closed on Nov. 30, one day after he romped to a 7 ¾-length allowance win at Churchill Downs in his second career start.

Since then, Dortmund had to work much harder than expected to capture the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, winning by a head in his stakes debut. Owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert -- the same team that races Breeders' Cup Classic winner Bayern -- Dortmund's foes in the Robert B. Lewis are topped by Firing Line, who was a narrowly beaten second in the Los Alamitos Futurity.

Dortmund is listed as a 4-5 favorite in the Santa Anita stakes, with Firing Line the second choice at 7-5, and Saturday's outcome should paint a clearer picture of the two colts' abilities -- and Kentucky Derby prospects.

Overall, the Robert B. Lewis came up short on horses and weak in terms of overall talent as aside from the two favorites only Sham Stakes runner-up Rock Shandy (6-1) did not lose by double-digit lengths in his last start.

At Aqueduct, the center of attention will be El Kabeir, who rates as the bargain of the first wagering pool. Despite winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 29, the son of Scat Daddy was dismissed at astronomical 74-1 odds in the Derby future wager.

Since then, El Kabeir confirmed his solid form by winning Aqueduct's Grade 3 Jerome Stakes by nearly five lengths. He faces six relatively untested rivals in the Withers and Safe Bet No. 2 is that the 74-1 ship has left the port in the future wager. He was listed at a more reasonable 20-1 in the morning line for this weekend's future wager pool.

El Kabeir is owned by Ahmed Zayat and a stablemate of 2-year-old champion American Pharoah, who has yet to race at three because of an injury that knocked him out of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. American Pharoah logged his first workout of the year on Feb. 2, when he breezed three furlongs in 36.20 seconds at Santa Anita, and might not be ready for a race until March.

In the meantime, El Kabeir rates as an excellent backup plan. He's worked well since taking the Jerome on Jan. 3 and, despite drawing the outside post, should be tough to beat as the 8-5 morning-line choice while bidding for a straight graded stakes win.

Only two of his rivals have stakes experience: General Bellamy, who was 12 ½ lengths behind in third in the Jerome, and Classy Class, who was fourth in the Remsen. The rest are coming off maiden wins, with March, from trainer Chad Brown's barn, and the Todd Pletcher-trained Far From Over the two most promising possibilities.

There will indeed be tougher tests for both Dortmund and El Kabeir as the days draw closer to the first Saturday in May, but for this weekend, while older horses will dominate the stage, there's at least a few 3-year-olds to thankfully remind us that spring is on the horizon.


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