In deciding on the right choice for my Horse of the Year ballot, I'm reminded that some people believe the St. Louis Cardinals should have won the 1985 World Series. My son, the avid Green Bay Packers fan, will tell you the Seahawks did not win the infamous Fail Mary game in 2012.
Oh, and in keeping with the holiday spirit, remember Thanksgiving Day 1998? That's when the Steelers' Jerome Bettis said he called "tails" for the coin toss before the start of overtime and it landed on tails, but the referee claimed he heard Bettis say "heads-tails" and gave the ball to the Lions. Detroit took the kickoff, booted a field goal and won the game, much to the chagrin of Bettis, the Steelers and all of their disgruntled fans who felt cheated.
This is mentioned in light of a wide-spread feeling that Bayern should have been disqualified in the Breeders' Cup Classic and a pondering of how that will impact Horse of the Year voting.
Will some voters do what the stewards at Santa Anita elected not to do, and refuse to give Bayern full credit for winning the richest, most important and arguably the most contentious race of the year?
We'll know that answer in January, but for me, my vote belongs with Bayern … for now.
More on the qualifying words later; my own feeling is that history cannot be re-written to fit anyone's needs. Even if someone feels the decision was wrong, there must be some respect for the process. Incorrect calls are a part of sporting events on a daily basis, and when there's a review process and the decision is upheld, you can complain or moan on Twitter all you want, but the decision does indeed stand … unless there was a conspiracy to cover-up the facts. People can say the stewards did not want to anger a trainer with as much clout as Hall of Famer Bob Baffert by disqualifying Bayern, but unless someone took a selfie of an envelope filled with Benjamin Franklins changing hands, it's just meaningless conjecture.
If racing had a leader or commissioner with the power to twist enough arms, find sponsorship and arrange a year-end rematch -- sort of a modern-day Marlboro Cup -- there could have been a blockbuster race in our future that would hopefully settle the matter. Instead we're left with debating a controversial finish from now until the end of time, as unsettling as that may be for some.
It would be easy and no doubt popular to join the contrarians and trash the stewards, but my own feeling is that it was indeed a 50-50 call and I could live with either a disqualification or letting the order the finish stand.
Yes, there was indeed a bump that impacted the favored Shared Belief, who wound up fourth. Yet bumping alone, especially at the start, should not be grounds for a disqualification or inquiries will become an irritatingly common occurrence. The incident has to be taken into consideration in terms of the entire race to decide what role it played in the outcome, and in the Breeders' Cup Classic the question is whether the bump cost Shared Belief the four lengths or so he needed to win the race.
That's a difficult question to answer because shortly after the bump, jockey Mike Smith put Shared Belief in a tight spot and had to yank him out of it, probably costing the gelding a couple of lengths.
After all that, it's understandable that Shared Belief finished fourth. Yet to focus completely on the bump at the start and ignore Smith's miscue seems unfair. Part of Shared Belief's woes was caused by his own rider.
My own verdict, after much consideration, would have been to disqualify Bayern … and the runner-up Toast of New York. Moreno, a speedster who was hit in the chain reaction caused by Bayern, recovered from that incident, according to his jockey, Javier Castellano, and was ready to join the fray on the front end when Toast of New York cut in front of him, bumping Moreno and forcing Castellano to check. According to the Equibase chart, when Toast of New York veered in from post nine, he also placed Shared Belief in "close quarters."
Moreno was a 28-1 shot and finished last, yet his victory earlier in the year in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap indicates he could have been a factor in the BC Classic, and to me, to penalize Bayern and reward Toast of New York by elevating him to first, ignoring his transgression in the process, would have been the wrong move.
To me, it was a matter of having to disqualify either the first two finishers -- which would have made California Chrome the winner -- or none of them, and in the end that made it a coin flip -- one I'll do without help from Phil Luckett, thank you. So I'll go along with the outcome, knowing full well that at some point in the near future I will see races with worse incidents and no change in the order of finish and lesser incidents that will result in a disqualification. Mistakes are a part of any sport, as umpire Don Denkinger and some long-forgotten NFL replacement referee will no doubt tell you, and while I might criticize the decision, I'm not about to overturn the decision of people who have a difficult and thankless job.
With that view of the BC Classic, it leads me to Bayern as the top horse in 2014. He closed out the year by winning four of his last five races. In the BC Classic, he faced an outstanding field and, bump or no bump, showed a great amount of determination in hanging on and winning at a distance where he was suspect. He also won the $1 million, Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby by 5 ¾ lengths over a field that included California Chrome. In the $1 million Grade 1 Haskell he won by 7 ¼ lengths, beating 3-year-old filly champ and Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Untapable in the process. He won the Grade 2 Woody Stephens by 7 ½ lengths with Social Inclusion, who was the clear-cut second choice in the Preakness, finishing third.
His lone flaw in that stretch was an ugly last-place finish in the Travers , which prompted me to believe he had little chance in the BC Classic and then increased my respect for him when he managed to hang on and win at a mile-and-a-quarter at Santa Anita against a better field.
Interestingly, of those five races, the only one in which Bayern was favored was the race he lost, the Travers, illustrating that he did not bully a bunch of pushovers in any of them.
Main Sequence was my secondary option. But even with four Grade 1 wins (Bayern had only two), I couldn't side with him. Aside from the Breeders' Cup Turf, his three wins -- the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer and United Nations -- were against lesser competition than Bayern faced. Twilight Agenda and Imagining, who were his main rivals in those three races, were sent off at odds of 19-1 and 17-1, respectively, in the BC Turf, showing what people really thought of them.
My own reluctance to back Main Sequence off a turf-only resume is nothing new. Two years ago, I happily backed Wise Dan because he finished second in a Grade 1 stakes on dirt. A year ago, I reluctantly sided with him after Game On Dude flopped in the BC Classic. My feeling was that Wise Dan, who raced strictly on turf and synthetics and tackled a mediocre group of milers, was not subjected to the type of competition dirt stars battled. In a close race, he needed to leave his comfort zone and face bigger challenges to outshine Game On Dude and get my vote. As it turned out, that race became lopsided when Game On Dude fizzled once again in the BC Classic.
This year, the turf star faces a much more accomplished dirt star and that gives the nod to Bayern … unless it goes to California Chrome.
As mentioned before, my own decision is not finalized. If California Chrome can win Saturday's Hollywood Derby, a Grade 1 turf stakes at Del Mar, I'm switching over to California Chrome. Running on turf is a gamble and the sportsmanship involved in a move like that is motivation enough to elevate him to the top spot if he adds the Hollywood Derby to three previous Grade 1 triumphs, a stellar list that includes the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Santa Anita Derby.
A very narrow loss might also sway me. We'll see. His body of work in the spring is much better than anyone else's and close losses in the BC Classic and a Grade 1 turf stakes at the end of the year are hardly a disgrace.
All I'm hoping for now is a clean race on Saturday so the cards can fall where they may, without any need for interpretation. Suffice it to say, we've had enough bumpy rides in 2014.