There's an old saying that pace makes the race.
Sometimes chasing the pace can cost you the race.
In the $1.25 million Travers at Saratoga, nine horses faced a dilemma. Which one of them was going to chase Bayern?
About a month earlier, Bayern had romped to a 7 ¼-length win in the $1 million Haskell when he was allowed to cruise along on the front end after an easy 47.66-second opening half-mile in the mile-and-an-eighth test.
To prevent a repeat, somebody had to pester Bayern and that somebody turned out to be Tonalist.
Normally Tonalist will stalk the early leader, like he did when he won the mile-and-a-half Belmont Stakes by a head. Yet in the mile-and-a-quarter Travers, after Bayern skipped out to a quick 2-3 length lead in the opening yards, Tonalist and Wicked Strong went right after him. By the time they reached the finish line for the first time, Tonalist was in front and he stayed there for a brief while until he drifted wide on the first turn and Bayern scooted inside of him to reclaim the lead.
After that, Tonalist stayed attached to Bayern's hip and pressed the pace from second through fractions of 23.57 seconds, 47.31 seconds and 1:11.27 as Wicked Strong stalked in third.
Tonalist wound up third in the Mid-Summer Derby, which went to V.E. Day, who rallied from seventh to beat stablemate Wicked Strong by a nose, and on Saturday there will be an intriguing rematch of the 3-year-old rivals.
The $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup -- the main event of Belmont Park's Super Saturday card with five Grade 1 stakes races -- will bring them together in a race that offers a challenge quite similar to the Travers. Once again there will be a speedy rival for them, and a chance for Tonalist to make amends.
After serving as the sacrificial lamb in the Travers and suffering a second straight loss at the Spa, Tonalist seems nicely positioned to rebound in the JCGC and regain some of the luster he's lost since his triumph in the Belmont.
While Moreno, the front-running 4-year-old gelding who won the $1.5 million Whitney at Saratoga, seems poised to play the role of Bayern on Saturday, this time there's no question about who will have to play catch-me-if-you-can with the early leader. That role should belong to California invader Big Cazanova, who arrives in the Big Apple after setting track records at a mile and then a mile and an eighth on Polytrack in his past two starts at Del Mar, and might be quick enough to set the early pace instead of Moreno.
That should allow jockey Joel Rosario to keep Tonalist in his more customary spot in the race, something trainer Christophe Clement wants to see as he takes the blinkers off the son of white-hot sire Tapit.
"Tonalist was a little more aggressive than I wanted him in both races in Saratoga [a runner-up finish to Wicked Strong in the Jim Dandy and the Travers]. He's an older horse than he was in May or June and he's more mature. He's been working without blinkers after the Travers and has been working very well," Clement said.
Having a spotless 2-for-2 record at Belmont Park only enhances his chances of turning in an improved performance, and makes Tonalist even more attractive as the 4-1 third choice in a field of 11.
Wicked Strong (the 3-1 favorite) has been a pesky rival for Tonalist, and on Saturday he once again shapes up as his main rival. The Centennial Farms colt finished in front of Tonalist twice at Saratoga but wound up in a dead heat for fourth behind him in the Belmont Stakes, and back at Big Sandy he seems destined for a runner-up finish.
A day before Wednesday's draw for the JCGC, trainer Eric Guillot bemoaned Moreno's loss in the mile-and-a-quarter Suburban at Belmont, when the 11 post on the clubhouse turn cost his fleet runner three lengths at the break. Apparently the Cajun trainer's "voodoo" was unable to keep away post 11, as Moreno (7-2) once again drew that treacherous post, with Big Cazanova right outside him in post 12.
That ground loss should hurt the chances of the two speedsters, but as proven by his gameness last time out in a half-length loss to Itsmyluckyday in the Grade 1 Woodward, the gelding has enough class that he still rates an excellent chance of figuring in the trifecta.
Zivo (6-1) could also be in the picture. He rallied from last to beat Moreno by three lengths in the Suburban, but the late runner had little chance against him and the victorious Itsmyluckyday in the Woodward on an afternoon that was quite kind to early speed at Saratoga.
The conditions figure to suit him better in the JCGC -- something that can also be said with confidence about Tonalist, who this time just might let the pace make the race for him.
Ehalt's selections
1. Tonalist
2. Wicked Strong
3. Moreno
4. Zivo