• Lehtonen has been hot, but will it continue?

  • By Tim Kavanagh, Special to ESPN.com | March 12, 2009 8:45:52 AM PDT
With just more than a month left in the fantasy hockey season, some folks are content with the teams they have, using the saying "dance with the one that brought you" to guide their decisions.

However, there are others of you who elect to follow the phrase "carpe diem" and take some big risks now that the stakes are higher. For those people, I present the Atlanta Thrashers' Kari Lehtonen.

Using the Last 7 split in our handy ESPN Player Rater, you'll see Lehtonen's name at the top today, and it's pretty obvious why: Two of his past three starts have been shutouts, sandwiched around a two-goals-against victory against the Calgary Flames. The fact that he's owned in only 15.3 percent of ESPN leagues should tell you that while he has shown flashes of this brilliance before, he has been known to pull the rug out from under his fantasy owners at the worst possible time.

Unfortunately, there's no guarantee this won't happen again. So for the squeamish, it's best to stick with your current goaltender. But for the bold, there's a chance that the former Urpo Ylonen Trophy (best goalie in the Finnish SM-liiga) winner could be a difference-maker -- in a good way -- through his final 15 games. Those owners will just have to keep an eye on his matchups.

Of his remaining contests, seven are bad plays. Two of Lehtonen's Southeast Division rivals have been especially unkind to the Finn, as the Washington Capitals scored eight goals on him over the course of two games, and the Florida Panthers hit the twine 14 times in three games. Those two teams will face Lehtonen's Thrashers five more times before season's end, and starting Lehtonen in those spots is criminally irresponsible. The tilts against the Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings also are bad plays for Lehtonen, as those teams scored three and four, respectively, against him earlier this season, and both teams are scoring well more than three goals per game during March.

Now for the good news: Lehtonen gave up just two goals in his only matchup against the Buffalo Sabres, whom the Thrashers will play twice more, and three goals in his lone matchup against the Ottawa Senators, who are on the schedule once more. A repeat of those numbers won't do wonders for ratio stats, but it will keep the Thrashers in the game, and considering the tendency of Brian Elliott and Patrick Lalime to give up bunches of goals, it wouldn't be crazy to expect three wins out of that trio of games.

The Edmonton Oilers have taken over as the enigmas of the league now that we know what we're getting from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Although they are plodding along at 2.77 goals per game for the season, the Oilers have been scoring more in March, averaging 3.50 goals per contest. In spite of this, I'd roll the dice with Lehtonen against the Oilers because they could play like their old selves just as easily as they could continue their hot streak. Another enigmatic squad is the Tampa Bay Lightning, who have averaged nearly a full goal per game more during March than during the full season. However, Lehtonen has given up just 11 goals to the Lightning in four games this season, and with coach Rick Tocchet futzing around with the lines again, separating Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier, you don't know what you're going to get from them. Thus, I'd say both games against Tampa Bay are strong starts for Lehtonen.

That leaves us with the crown jewels of the remaining schedule: the Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers. "Les Habitants" were one of Lehtonen's recent shutout victims, so they might have some more creative ideas as to how to solve Lehtonen the second time around, but as they are one of the coldest-scoring offenses in the league, I'd wager on Lehtonen coming out on top again. The Rangers have managed only four goals combined in two games against Lehtonen this season, and if newcomer Nik Antropov cannot continue his stellar play -- he has a goal and five assists in four games -- against the Thrashers, the Rangers probably will be sunk again.

Perennially, a late-season pickup becomes a key component of a championship team in fantasy sports. This year, that pickup could be Kari Lehtonen.

Ice chips

One trade that might have slipped under your radar at the trade deadline was Erik Christensen going to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for Eric O'Dell, who is closing out his second season with the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL. Hockeysfuture.com has him rated as a 6.5 on their prospect scale, which translates to potential to be a second- or third-line NHL forward. However, that scale doesn't take into account that O'Dell could play with NHL linemates who are filthily talented, as has been the case for Christensen. With the Penguins, Christensen spent some time on the Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin lines, and with the Thrashers, he had his turn as the pivot on Ilya Kovalchuk 's trio. Now in Anaheim, Christensen has been slotted in with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf on the top line. Coaches keep giving him a chance to skate with their top talent, and he will continue to get some opportunities to produce because of it. Owned in about half of ESPN leagues, Christensen might be worth a flier for these last few weeks if you're in a risk-taking mood. … Speaking of beneficial line placement, Alexandre Burrows continued his stellar production as a member of the Sedin line with goal No. 20 on the season against the Ducks on Wednesday. Forget for a moment that he already has shattered his career bests for goals and points on the season; just check his stat line since he joined up with Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin: 13 games, seven goals, five assists, plus-nine, 31 penalty minutes, 39 shots on goal. A point-per-game average is a standard barometer used to determine legitimate production, and not only has Burrows been around that ratio while playing with the twins, he also has filled up the rest of the fantasy categories. After Burrows' first game on the line, I noted in this space that he would be "a fantasy goldmine" if he stuck there, and I obviously stand by those words now. Burrows is an absolute steal for a stretch run, especially in the upcoming head-to-head playoffs, and he somehow is still available in almost 65 percent of ESPN leagues. … If I didn't know better, I would think Sean Allen had become a Hurricanes fan, after reading his Open Ice column Monday and blog entry Sunday. But one player who slipped through the cracks in all that Hurricanes talk was goalie Cam Ward. Since Feb. 15, Ward is 9-3-1, with two shutouts and 25 goals against in those 13 games. Granted, he was yanked after the first period of one game for allowing three goals to the Senators, but you have to think he's amping up for a strong playoff run. If you had any reservations about starting Ward, this hot streak should prove to you that he's back to being on the lower end of the No. 1 fantasy goalie totem pole and should be started for every game he starts for the Canes. … After an atrocious run in February, it looked like Brian Elliott had given the starting goaltending job back to Alex Auld in Ottawa. But after Auld took a severe beating from the Flames, Elliott was brought in for mop-up duty and hasn't missed a minute of action since. In the four games since regaining control, Elliott has given up just four goals total and has won all four contests. Elliott is not fully recommended based on his tendency to allow goals in bunches after strong runs like this one, but if you are in desperate need of a hot goalie for the stretch run -- and don't want Lehtonen, of course -- he's available in more than 90 percent of leagues.


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