Hump day is hard, but college football is right around the corner. Each Wednesday this season we'll be here to help you power through the final few days until Saturday by providing a couple of extra things to keep in mind for the coming week of Big Ten games.
Beyond the obvious in Week 3 -- a pair of matchups that give Big Ten powers Ohio State and Michigan State a chance to knock off out-of-conference playoff contenders and significantly help their own chances in that department -- there are a handful of Big Ten teams this week who can finish their nonconference schedules without a loss. Let's take a look at how likely a perfect 3-0 start is for five of them and what it would mean for each.
No. 9 Wisconsin vs. Georgia State (FPI Win Probability - 98.4 percent): Deep breaths, Badgers fans. The validating nonconference win over No. 5 LSU is in the rear-view window, and one of the toughest stretches any team in college football will face this season lies ahead. For now, rest assured that Wisconsin will remain atop the West Division food chain for another week.
The Badgers are averaging 38 minutes, 54 seconds of possession through two games -- the second-best ball control in the country. Georgia State (0-2) has a total of 38:50 in possession through two games -- dead last in the FBS. Justin Wilcox's defense should be plenty well rested heading into a matchup with Michigan State next week.
No. 13 Iowa vs. North Dakota State (FPI Win Probability - 90.9 percent): This isn't your typical FCS cupcake. North Dakota State could end up being the most impressive nonconference win of the season for Iowa, which admittedly doesn't say much for its scheduling chutzpah.
The Hawkeyes aren't going to make a big jump in the polls with a nice win over the Bison. They're also not going to drop off precipitously if the game ends up closer than expected, as long as they come away with a win. Two of the Big Ten's worst teams wait on the other side, which means a win this weekend puts Iowa in position to start spooking SEC-loving families with the idea that an undefeated Hawkeyes team could steal a playoff spot.
No. 4 Michigan vs. Colorado (FPI Win Probability – 90 percent): No one expected the Wolverines to trip on their way through a mediocre-at-best challenge in the nonconference season. Nothing Jim Harbaugh's team has done against Hawaii or UCF suggests that opinion should change.
Colorado has posted some pretty good offensive stats (seventh nationally in total yards and fourth in third-down conversions), which could help to add some legitimacy to Michigan's talent-laden defense. The Buffs are a step up in competition and another step toward the Wolverines' goal of a playoff spot, but they are relatively small steps.
Nebraska vs. No. 22 Oregon (FPI Win Probability - 74.2 percent): After the way Mike Riley's first season played out, an undefeated start and a win over a ranked program would be a monumental confidence-builder for the Cornhuskers and add an important layer of depth for the Big Ten. Nebraska could slip into the top 25 with a win over the Ducks and give the league a sixth ranked team.
So how do they get there? Stick with what's working. The offense ran the ball on two of every three plays and averaged 47.5 points in its first two wins. That might not work all season, but against a Ducks defense that hasn't held up particularly well against Virginia and UC Davis, the best chance for Nebraska remains on the ground.
Maryland at UCF (FPI Win Probability - 65.6 percent): A victory in Orlando would mean the Terps match their 2015 win total in only three weeks, providing D.J. Durkin & Co. with a dream start to their tenure at Maryland. A 3-0 mark might not mean much in the grand scheme of things in the Big Ten this season, but it will continue to go a long way toward the new coaching staff installing its plans for the future and inspiring confidence from everyone around the program.
Getting to see the Knights play against Michigan last week gives Durkin, the former Wolverines defensive coordinator, a good base to start making a game plan. UCF is a faster and more physical team under Scott Frost, but Maryland is capable of giving them a game. This should be an underrated, entertaining meeting between what could end up as two of the most improved teams of the 2016 season.