It's been a while since the ol' mailbag appeared in these parts. But with the season rapidly approaching -- less than two weeks now! -- I thought it would be a great time to see what's on your minds. Fire away.
@BennettESPN @ESPN_BigTen Which team do you expect to have the biggest drop off from last year? Which do you expect to improve the most?
— Benny (@FLBuckeye14) August 18, 2016
Brian Bennett: Well, OK, let's jump right in with some predictions. These will live for at least a fortnight before being proved wrong.
The team I see having the biggest dropoff is Northwestern. The Wildcats won 10 games a year ago despite being outscored in conference play (a number heavily influenced, certainly, by the blowout losses to Iowa and Michigan) and scoring just 18.5 points per game in Big Ten action. While the offense should improve some with Clayton Thorson having a year under his belt at quarterback, Northwestern's good fortune last year in close, low-scoring games is just not sustainable. This team still will be a tough out, with stars such as Anthony Walker Jr. and Justin Jackson, but it could well be more like a 7-5 squad.
As for the team that will improve the most, I would have gone with Nebraska had the Cornhuskers finished at 5-7 or not won their bowl game. I still could see Mike Riley's team easily going from six to nine wins this season (and Minnesota could be in the same boat).
But I think Maryland takes a bigger leap in the wins column. The Terrapins were more talented than their 3-9 record in 2015, but a) were one of the most turnover-prone teams we've seen in years and b) lacked a coherent identity. The turnovers should stabilize, and D.J. Durkin will at least have them playing credible defense. The Terps could get back to a bowl game and maybe even go 7-5.
@BennettESPN Give me the odds of the following scenarios for PSU in September: 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, or 1-3?
— LeftyMarlins (@LeftyMarlins) August 18, 2016
Brian Bennett: Penn State is an intriguing team because of its new offensive scheme and the possibility that Saquon Barkley might just run over everything in his path.
The possible outcomes, I believe, are either 2-2 or 3-1. I don't believe the Nittany Lions will lose to Kent State at home or get upset by Temple for a second straight year. So it really comes down to the road games at Pitt and Michigan. Right now, I'd make Penn State an underdog in both spots, particularly against the Wolverines. I think Pitt probably wins in Heinz Field as well, simply because Pat Narduzzi has fewer question marks on his hands for the Week 2 showdown.
So I'll say 2-2, and how about a 60 percent chance of that happening? And if the Nittany Lions are 1-3, there's a zero percent chance that James Franklin will want to check Twitter.
@BennettESPN who is the best of the worst? Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, or Illinois?
— Austin Hames (@azhawk911) August 18, 2016
Brian Bennett: I'm not sure if this is a mean question or some backward compliment. Regardless, I like it.
Let's go ahead and eliminate Purdue. The Boilermakers do have 16 starters back, but they haven't shown much reason to think they're ready to make a big jump up. Illinois is a total wild card under Lovie Smith. I think there could be some bumps in the road with that late transition -- his staff just came aboard in mid-March, remember -- and a few injuries could be catastrophic for a thin team.
I just wrote a minute ago that Maryland could make a bowl. Rutgers, I think, is in for a longer year, especially with one of the toughest opening games in the Big Ten -- all the way across the country at Washington -- and that East Division minefield. Don't forget that Indiana is the only one of these five who played in the postseason last year, and the Hoosiers took Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan to the wire. I'm interested seeing what Tom Allen's new defensive system can do, and I'm confident Kevin Wilson's offense still will be potent. So I'll go with IU here, though not exactly by a wide margin.
@BennettESPN @ESPN_BigTen Which team has the toughest non-conference schedule?
— @toddmal (@toddmal) August 18, 2016
Brian Bennett: Interesting question, if only because many teams are playing one tough out-of-league opponent and then not much else. Wisconsin, for example, opens with LSU but then plays Akron and Georgia State. Michigan State definitely deserves credit for playing both Notre Dame and BYU (they also play Furman, but the Spartans aren't suicidal). Nebraska hosts Oregon and also plays Fresno State, which is not a pushover program by any means.
But the title of toughest nonconference schedule goes to Ohio State. The Buckeyes not only travel to Oklahoma, which was in the national playoff last year, but they also face a Bowling Green team that went 10-4 and won the MAC title last season, in addition to Tulsa, a 2015 bowl team that has had some good years of late. Ohio State still should be heavily favored in those latter two games, but there are no weaklings on this schedule.