With a two-out, two-RBI single to center field against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday, Angels designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero renewed the faith of those who long had ago dismissed him as a postseason flop. Before Sunday, Guerrero had not had an RBI in 13 postseason games. The at-bat against Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon was classic Guerrero: Swing at the first pitch and hope for the best. Perhaps most important, Guerrero's ability to smack Papelbon's 95 mph fastball shows that he can still contend against the strongest (and fastest) pitchers in the game. Guerrero, although not the feared player he once was, still can contribute.

At the end of this season, the 34-year-old Guerrero will be a free agent for the first time since the run-up to the 2004 season. Although it's very possible Vlad will re-sign with the Angels, it surely will be at a discount from the $15 million he's earned this year. "Vladdy has always been one of my favorites," Angels owner Arte Moreno said in a champagne-soaked clubhouse on Sunday at Fenway park. The comment indicates that Vlad's negotiations with the Angels likely will be tinged with sentimental attachment. But if Guerrero decides to pursue the open market, what will he find?"I think his market will be a one-year deal in the $7-8 million range," one general manager wrote me in an e-mail. Another GM estimated Guerrero would get less than $7 million. "It's such a limited market for a pure DH, and there is a surplus there," he wrote. Then there are the warning signs that Guerrero could be on the verge of a steep decline. Injuries limited him to 100 games this season, and he produced only 15 home runs and 50 RBIs -- his lowest totals since his rookie year in 1997. Most troubling were Guerrero's peripheral statistics. He walked just 4.7 percent of the time -- by far the lowest of his career -- indicating that he's become even more of a free swinger at an age when most players have begun to lose their bat speed. Also, his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio was 1.05 -- the lowest of his career -- meaning he's hitting more ground balls at a time when he can barely gimp around the bases. Even his fly balls aren't going as far as they once did -- his homer-to-fly ball percentage of 11.5 percent this year was far below his career average of 17.1. His .460 slugging percentage, .295 average and .334 OBP were full-season career lows, while his slugging percentage has been in decline since 2004. And the fact that Guerrero played just two games in the outfield this year means he's probably done playing defense. "To me, he's strictly a DH at this point," another GM wrote. But there is a case to be made in favor of signing Vlad. Despite the injuries, his batting average (.295) ranked third among all full-time designated hitters. And there's evidence that he's gotten better as he's healed. Guerrero hit 11 of his 15 home runs after August, when he came back from a second disabled list stint. Although the decrease in walks is a bad sign, he's still showing he can have success by free swinging. His contact percentage -- the contact he makes on all pitches -- remained steady at 81 percent (his career average is 80.5), which is an indicator that pitchers aren't yet able to throw fastballs past him.
Guerrero's perceived postseason struggles may be slightly overblown, too. Last year Guerrero hit .467 in the AL Division Series against the Red Sox. This year, Guerrero hit .400 against Boston. Although he has not been able to boost his slugging percentage in the playoffs, he's shown he can still get on base. Most encouraging for any team is that Guerrero may finally be embracing his DH role. Before the season, he hedged when told he was no longer going to play the field full time. Now, it seems he's accepted the role. He's likely to do better in his second season as he focuses on being a DH. Another positive is the way his mellow demeanor has been such a stabilizing force in the Angels' clubhouse. "Our team is really rooting for this guy," Angels hitting coach Mickey Hatcher said. "He's done so many good things for our organization."When the Angels signed Cuban first baseman Kendry Morales, Guerrero immediately helped integrate him into the team by inviting Morales to home-cooked meals at the veteran's house. And although Guerrero presents both the risks and benefits associated with aging players, it's impossible to ignore some of the praise his own teammates throw at him."He's the best player I've seen in my life," Angels infielder Erick Aybar said.