<
>

Breaking down Wake Forest-NC State

Can Wake Forest make it to 5-0? Who would have thought that would be a legitimate question after back to back 3-9 seasons? Standing in the Demon Deacons' way is NC State, which is coming off a bye and enters a stretch Saturday that features games with Notre Dame, at Clemson and at Louisville.

ACC reporters Matt Fortuna and Jared Shanker break down Saturday’s matchup in Raleigh.

Matchup Wake Forest has to win: The Deacs need to be able to move the ball on the ground, an aspect they have been remarkably efficient at through four games this season (at least compared to the previous two years). Wake averages 200 rushing yards a game, good for seventh in the ACC. Though keeping the ground-game momentum will be difficult again without quarterback Kendall Hinton and running back Cade Carney, the Deacs did do just enough in last week’s win at Indiana, with John Wolford and Matt Colburn accounting for 61 and 103 rushing yards, respectively. They won the rushing battle despite being outgained by 259 total yards, as they held the ball for nearly eight more minutes than the Hoosiers. Against NC State’s defensive line, that will be a tough task. -- Fortuna

Matchup NC State has to win: Graduate transfer Ryan Finley has taken command of NC State’s offense with his accuracy, becoming the country’s most consistent passer with an FBS-high 76.3 completion percentage. The Demon Deacons come into Raleigh, North Carolina, on the heels of a game in which they picked off five passes. Generally, they’re not a secondary that produces many turnovers (six interceptions total), but with a battered offensive backfield they will need to create a few to pull off the upset. Finley has to continue being diligent with the football as he has yet to throw an interception. -- Shanker

Wake Forest X factor: Confidence. Don’t laugh at the cliche. For a team that did all the right things but had nothing but consecutive three-win seasons to show for it, a breakthrough in the win column this season is just what a young team needs, as seeing is believing. That translates to the little parts of the game -- be it the five interceptions the Deacs came up with last weekend in a tight win, or the two blocked kicks they have so far this season. They are second in the ACC in turnover margin at plus-5, and after winning a pair of Power-5 road games this season, what’s one more for this group? -- Fortuna

NC State X factor: Having completed an apprenticeship at Boise State, new coordinator Eli Drinkwitz has injected some Smurf Turf creativity into what was a stodgy offense. He has found ways to get the ball into the hands of Jaylen Samuels in a number of ways, and Samuels has responded. He’s listed as a tight end, but he’s a dynamic rusher, too. Against a solid Wake Forest defense, Drinkwitz will need to find ways to free up Samuels. Good things happen when he has the ball, as he’s scored six touchdowns on only 25 touches. -- Shanker

Fortuna's prediction: Wake Forest 31, NC State 28. All the pressure is on the home team in this one, as the Wolfpack lost against the only decent opponent they faced this season (East Carolina) and need to win this game before entering a tough three-game stretch. Expect the Deacs to make one more play defensively and improbably improve to 5-0.

Shanker's prediction: NC State 24, Wake Forest 21. The extra week of preparation for NC State and the emotional peak the Demon Deacons are coming down from is the difference. The Wake Forest defense will cause problems for the Wolfpack, but it will be NC State’s defense that causes a key turnover and wins late.