• Too early to tell about what lies ahead for M's

  • By Rob Neyer | March 19, 2009 10:46:02 AM PDT
Dave Cameron is now halfway through his Organizational Rankings, with the Mariners coming in at No. 15 and earning a gentleman's B-minus. Money:
    I fully expect most of you to believe that this is a prematurely optimistic estimate of the front office. That's fine -- I'm actually more concerned that this rating is too conservative, honestly. They've combined the best of the scouting world with the best of the sabermetric world and get to play with a top ten payroll to boot. They have to dig out of a bit of a hole left by the Bavasi regime, but the hole isn't as big as you might think, and a lot of the heavy lifting has already been done. Despite being buried by the national consensus, the team has a 15% or so chance of winning the AL West this year (seriously), and the 2009 team will likely be the least talented one that Zduriencik puts on the field for the foreseeable future. Things are looking up in Seattle, and given their resources and the direction of the front office, the Mariners are poised to make a big leap forward. Oh, and one final note -- I fully expect the "you're a biased Mariner fan" claim to show up early and often in the comments section. Just so you're aware, though, the historical complaint about my writing from Mariner fans have been that I've been too pessimistic about the team. So, while it will be nice to be accused of the opposite kind of bias for once, how about we try to rise above analytical laziness and discuss the organization's strengths and weaknesses and get away from statements about the credibility of an author who writes something you might not agree with?
As I wrote some years ago, "The knee-jerk attribution of bias is one hallmark of a lazy mind." There's nothing wrong with looking for bias; we must be ever vigilant. But Cameron -- one of the co-authors over at U.S.S. Mariner -- has written thousands upon thousands of harsh words about the organization. While it's unrealistic to think he's got no biases at all -- who among us can claim that? -- there's simply no reason to think he's unduly optimistic (or pessimistic) about the Mariners. Cameron is right: Things really aren't so bad. Yes, Bill Bavasi's reign left the M's in a hole. But structurally, the organization is on solid footing: good ballpark, good market, decent talent and (presumably) effective executives now running the show. If I have one reservation, though, it's about that presumably I just parenthesized. I like Jack Zduriencik, who says all the right things and has hired some bright people. He hasn't made any big moves yet, though. Nor has he had the time to remake the organization according to his ideas. Until he does those things, it's just too early to predict a division title in the next three years. Programming note: I'm off to the Rose Garden for this afternoon's first-round tournament action. Hoping to see you tomorrow!

Tell us what you think!

Take Survey Now » No Thanks »