MLB Trade Rumors offers a handy rundown of rumored destinations for Barry Bonds, including this note:Earlier today I came down pretty strong on the side of statistical methods over subjective methods, and particularly when it comes to projections. So it would be terribly inconsistent of me to suggest that I don't trust these projections for the Rays ... but I don't. Not quite.Don't get me wrong. I like the Rays. They might shock the world. I just don't love them. And all the projections don't love them, either. I've got another projection, supposedly derived by playing Diamond Mind Baseball, that's got the Rays winning 80 games. Which to believe?Well, that's the tough one. If you've actually designed one of the methods -- and especially if you work for a team and you've designed one for your employer -- you have to trust your own (or say you trust your own). I don't have a horse in this race, though, so I bet on all the horses. And all the horses together are telling me the Rays will win 82-84 games this season. Which is why I can't advocate the signing of Bonds (though I might change my mind if the Rays have a great record in June but still have a hole in their lineup).I suppose I should wonder why the Rays are projected for so many wins by multiple methods. Well, I don't know why. But I suspect it's because, at least in part, they have so many talented, if unproven, young pitchers. But I'm not yet convinced that projections know what to do with such pitchers. I am convinced that you can't count on them for much.Do you know how many rookies threw 200 innings last year? One: 26-year-old Daisuke Matsuzaka, and he's hardly a typical rookie. Other than Dice-K, only three other rookies managed even 162 innings. Only three rookie starters -- Matsuzaka, Brian Bannister and Kyle Kendrick -- won more than nine games.Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel ... I love 'em all. Same with Cincinnati's Homer Bailey-Johnny Cueto-Edinson Volquez, and the Yankees' Joba Chamberlain-Phil Hughes-Ian Kennedy. That's nine rookies (or near-rookies) and only three teams. Granted, last year was a particularly poor one for rookie starters (following a 2006 that was particularly good). But history suggests that only four or five rookie starters will do much this year. Which should, at the least, give one pause when it comes to the Rays' need for Barry Bonds.