• Post-Buchholz Backstops

  • By Rob Neyer | September 4, 2007 5:42:46 AM PDT
Lots of stuff to talk about after the long weekend, but first let's put some wrapping paper on Clay Buchholz's no-hitter and tie everything up with a pretty bow ...• I'm not the vindictive sort, generally. Not a gotcha kind of guy, usually. So I don't have any interest in going back through the archives to see just how many media types in Boston killed the Red Sox for not giving Pedro Martinez the contract he wanted a few years ago. Which isn't to say the Sox didn't make an effort. According to Seth Mnookin in Feeding the Monster, "the Red Sox offered Martinez a two-year deal worth $25.5 million with a $13 million option for 2007 and various performance bonuses." Meanwhile, the Mets were offering much more, even though "the team's statistics guru told [Omar] Minaya that Martinez wasn't a smart long-term investment..."
The Red Sox's own internal debate was similar to the Mets', except the Red Sox had even more specific medical data about Martinez's rotator cuff. To varying degrees, the people in the team's baseball operations office, from Theo Epstein to Bill James to assistant general manager Josh Byrnes, didn't think it was wise to guarantee Martinez more than two years. His shoulder was too questionable, his decline too suggestive of what was to come. Ownership and top management were more conflicted -- Larry Lucchino, for one, wanted to do whatever the team could to bring Martinez back. "I was Pedro's biggest supporter," says Lucchino.
Lucchino won the day: the Red Sox offered $40.5 million, three years guaranteed, with a hefty option for 2008. The Red Sox thought they had him. Until the Mets offered four guaranteed years, for $53 million.You know what happened next. We're nearly three seasons into that contract. The Mets have paid Martinez roughly $40 million so far, and he's won 25 games for them, including none in the postseason. If the Red Sox received nothing else but the savings of $40.5 million, they'd be far, far ahead in their semi-transaction with Martinez and the Mets. And all those who agitated for the Red Sox to re-sign Martinez are looking a little foolish.But that's not all. There is, as Paul Harvey might say, a rest of the story ... Because the Red Sox "lost" Martinez to free agency, they were were awarded the 42nd pick in the 2005 draft, and they used that pick to draft Buchholz. So for the Red Sox, the Mets' profligate offer to Martinez was a wonderful gift, and one that should keep on giving for a number of years.• Speaking of the draft, you can play what if? until it drives you crazy. As Rob Bradford reports, Dodgers scouting director Logan White "pushed hard to get the Dodgers to take the right-hander with the 40th pick," but instead they took Luke Hochevar ... who spurned the Dodgers' contract offer and went back to college (a year later, the Royals used the No. 1 overall pick on Hochevar, and this year he's struggled in the minors). So the Dodgers didn't get the guy they wanted, and even if they had gotten him, they probably wouldn't want him today.• If you spend just five minutes looking at anything on the InterWeb today, it should be Carlos Gomez's video analysis of Buchholz and Ian Kennedy. (And if you Yankee fans are miffed because Gomez is a bit more impressed with Buchholz, you should be mollified by his audio/visual take on Edwar Ramirez's changeup and his video comparison of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes.)• You might remember that a few weeks ago I inveighed against the "feeling" questions that players are typically asked by TV reporters, moments after something dramatic has happened. First of all (I argued), most of us really don't care so much about what the player is "feeling." And second, even if we do care, the player himself probably isn't feeling much of anything yet, and if he is, he's not articulate enough yet (if ever) to tell us about it. Unfortunately, my example was Tina Cervasio interviewing Jon Lester. I say unfortunately because I'm afraid I have to pick on Cervasio again (hey, I don't actually watch many of these postgame interviews). Here's how it went, a couple of minutes after Buchholz struck out Nick Markakis ...Cervasio: Clay Buchholz, your second major league start, and you no-hit the Baltimore Orioles. What is going through your mind right now?Buchholz: Uh, I don't even know right now. It's amazing, it's amazing. That's really all I could say right now.Cervasio: Now, as a rookie -- and again, you don't have experience on a major league mound; you had your first win here, a few weeks ago, August 17 -- how were you able to stay within yourself, with this Fenway crowd cheering you on, especially in the ninth inning?Buchholz: Uh, I don't have an answer to that question either. I'm in a little blur right now. It's, I don't know.Seriously, folks: Were any of us better off, even just a little, for having witnessed that? After dispensing with the pointless stuff, Cervasio then asked some substantive questions about the game, just as she did with Lester. Which makes me wonder, if interviewers absolutely have to ask the players how they're feeling, can't they at least do it after the important stuff? The answers might even be better once the player's had a couple of minutes to cool off.• So what's next for the No-Hit Kid? Forget about the no-hitter, and how little professional experience the kid's got, and all the rest of it. The single most important fact regarding Buchholz's near future is this: with 24 games to play, the Red Sox have a seven-game lead in the East, and an eight-lead in the (theoretical) wild-card standings. Given their huge lead and their fundamental strength, the Red Sox have a 99.something chance of getting into the playoffs, which means they have absolutely no incentive to use Buchholz much at all down the stretch.Unless. Unless they think he's good enough to help them in October. I agree with Nate Silver: right now, Buchholz probably is one of the Red Sox's four best starters, ahead of Tim Wakefield (and quite possibly Curt Schilling, too). It really doesn't matter, though. Even if a few October starts wouldn't crack Buchholz's secret innings limit, he'd have to make a few tuneup starts in September, too. He's already thrown 140 innings this season, so if you pile on six or eight more starts we're talking about 180 innings. And I just don't see the Red Sox letting that happen.

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