• Attendance sends signal about MLB's economy

  • By Peter Gammons | September 14, 2009 6:05:53 AM PDT
This year's attendance figures are not simply a result of there being no pennant races. This is about the economy. And as club official after club official points out, it's not going to get better before the season ticket, luxury box and corporate sponsor money is due.So before every free agent counts on money comparable to Mark Teixeira or CC Sabathia or J.D. Drew this offseason, consider that through Sunday only nine of the 30 teams were up in attendance. According to baseball-reference.com, Tampa Bay's attendance is up 3,009 a game, and given that the Rays are clearly disappointed that the 2008 World Series run spiked their attendance less than 15 percent, they had to move Scott Kazmir 's contract and may have to do more payroll re-evaluation this winter.The fourth-largest attendance rise is Texas -- by 1,820, to an average of more than 26,000; the owner has financial problems and MLB wouldn't let the Rangers go over slot to sign their first-round draft choice (Matt Purke), who went unsigned. The Royals (+2,461) and Marlins (+1,197) are second and fifth on the spike list.The combined increase for the nine teams that have gone up comes to 11,881 fans per game, or 1,655 more than the per-game decrease for the Mets. The Astros, Indians, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Padres, Nationals, Yankees, Tigers and Mets are all down more than 4,000 fans a game.Attendance is not the sole barometer for the sport's economy, but it represents a warning sign. We hear the bold predictions of Teixeira-like money for this winter's premier free agents, such as Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. But in this economy and given the drifting of second-tier free agents last winter, it won't be Christmas before we hear cries of collusion and the first refrains of "(I Can't Get No) Satisfaction."
When Rick Porcello snapped the Tigers' losing streak Sunday, it underscored the brilliant handling of the 20-year-old by Jim Leyland and Rick Knapp. It was the second time all year that Porcello has touched 100 pitches, and brought his nine-start post-Aug. 1 record to 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA; that ERA is even better than that of Justin Verlander (3.43) over the past two months.By spacing out his 27 starts and giving him what amounted to a two-week vacation around the All-Star break, Leyland has limited Porcello to 147 2/3 innings, which means he can be the Tigers' third starter come the playoffs. In many years, Porcello at 13-8, 4.21 would be a viable rookie of the year candidate. So would Tampa's Jeff Niemann, with 12 wins and a 3.57 ERA. There is a growing sentiment that in the long run the best pitcher of all the rookies will be Oakland's Brett Anderson, whose 9-10, 4.37 record would be better with a superior team and a Major League Baseball environment. Ricky Romero leads all AL rookie pitchers with 15 quality starts, followed by Trevor Cahill, Anderson's teammate, with 14.But the AL Rookie of the Year award will come down to Andrew Bailey, Gordon Beckham and Elvis Andrus, and each one would have won the award in other years. Bailey, another A's rookie, has been spectacular: making the All-Star team and allowing 48 hits in 75 1/3 innings to go along with an 81-23 strikeout-walk ratio, a 2.03 ERA and 24 saves. He has the highest percentage of swings and misses at fastballs in the strike zone of any pitcher in the majors this season.Beckham didn't start the season in the majors, and is learning how to play out of position at third base. He leads all AL rookies with 37 extra-base hits and has often been the White Sox's most intense competitor.But given the Rangers' surprising season and how much of a role defense has played in that success, Andrus appears to be the front-runner. Since July 19, he has hit .312 with a .374 on-base percentage and a .474 slugging percentage. According to the defensive data used by three different teams, Andrus and Jason Bartlett have been the best defensive shortstops in the league. Taking Lee Sinins' RCAA (runs created against average) formula, Bartlett ranks sixth in the AL among all players. Joe Mauer leads with 54, with Kevin Youkilis second at 47 and Shin-Soo Choo fifth with 38.
• Albert Pujols leads the NL with 85 RCAA, with Prince Fielder next at 58. Pujols' career OPS is now 1.057, trailing only Babe Ruth (1.164), Ted Williams (1.116) and Lou Gehrig (1.080), slightly ahead of Barry Bonds' 1.051. In case you hadn't been updated, Pujols' career walk-strikeout ratio is 801-566. And to think when Manny Ramirez had those three great months in Los Angeles, there were those who wanted to compare Manny with Pujols. • Of course, if one talks about extraordinary seasons that have flown under the radar, Bartlett would have to be near the top of the list despite missing three weeks on the DL. He leads all AL shortstops in OPS (.900), is hitting .327 and has strong defensive metrics. • One might nominate Javy Vazquez for that under-the-radar award in the NL. Only 167 hits allowed to go with a 216-40 strikeout-walk ratio in 197 1/3 innings? Ridiculous. ESPN Stats & Information has Vazquez second to Verlander with 393 swings and misses for the season. If the Braves, as suggested, have to move his contract this winter, he will be one of the most sought-after free agents.• When White Sox coach Joey Cora was a general manager in the Puerto Rican league, he drafted a young Blue Jays outfielder named Alex Rios. When Rios gets to spring training next February, he will be a major project for Cora, unless he has moved on to a managing job. Rios' 13-for-93 start has, well, scared everyone in Chicago given the $60M that the White Sox took on.• Justin Morneau is a legitimate star, but even with their pitching (ranked 24th in MLB with a 4.60 ERA), would the Twins be a little closer if Morneau weren't hitting .174 in August and September combined?• Adam Kilgore in The Boston Globe argues that Jon Lester should be considered among the elite class of pitchers. Since his second-to-last start in May, when his ERA was 6.07, Lester has made 19 starts, allowed more than three runs once and has a 2.02 ERA. • Puneet Nanda of the ESPN Stats & Information group pointed out that Clay Buchholz had 15 swings and misses and his lowest pitches-per-innings average of the season Sunday. But most remarkable is that after Vazquez (51), Pedro Martinez has the most swings and misses (47) of any National League pitcher in September.

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