Two years ago, four of the five teams in the NL West had better than
.500 records, and the Rockies and Diamondbacks played in the NLCS. This season, the Dodgers went into Saturday tied with the Cardinals for the best record in the National League and either the Rockies or Giants appear headed for the wild-card role in the National League playoffs.On Saturday morning, only the Cardinals, Dodgers and Phillies had won more games than the Rockies and Giants. Yet, there is this the perception that somehow the National League West is some remote wilderness somewhere between the Pacific Coast League and the Alaskan League. Oh, sure,
Vicente Padilla and
Brad Penny can jump off the Morgan Memorial trucks and throw gems, but it is a division predominated by the three California pitchers' parks that make it such a pitchers' division.And, yes, the Padres are, with a few notable exceptions, as recognizable as your average White Pages listings, but as of Saturday morning they had 14 more wins than the Nationals, seven more than the Pirates and one fewer than the Mets and Reds. Consider this: In games played outside their own division (versus teams from the NL East, Central and interleague play) the NL West this weekend was 24 games over .500, the NL Central five under, the NL East 24 under; in the American League, the West was 33 over .500, the East 28 over, the Central 37 under. "What this division has is four teams with good major league players and very good minor league systems," Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes says, "and we all know that not only are the Padres playing everyone tough, but they will get the organization back in place because they have such competent people running things. The Dodgers obviously are very good. The Giants' pitching is intimidating. The Rockies are
really good, both in terms of their everyday players and how well they pitch from top to bottom (yes, they lead the league in quality starts). How many people have noticed what
Ubaldo Jimenez has done, or
Max Scherzer, or realize how great
Clayton Kershaw is about to become?"Kershaw is winless in his last nine starts, during which time he has an ERA of 2.75 and has a total of eight runs of support.It is true that the best players in the game --
Albert Pujols,
Joe Mauer -- reside in the middle of the country. But what pitcher has the most wins in the National League since 2007?
Dan Haren, two more than
Adam Wainwright and
Ted Lilly. In these three seasons,
Tim Lincecum's 2.87 ERA is the best in baseball; Haren's 3.07 is the next best in the NL. "I look at
Matt Kemp and
Justin Upton and see two young stars who could win multiple MVP awards," one veteran scout says. "Upton just turned 22 [on Aug. 25]. Kemp is 24, and is a basketball player just learning to play baseball." Then there's
Pablo Sandoval, all of 23, one of the most fun players to watch in the game, one of its best pure hitters and heir to a tradition of great bad-ball hitters -- from Yogi Berra to Kirby Puckett,
Ruben Sierra to
Vladimir Guerrero. "There is no way to pitch him," says one pitching coach. "Plate discipline is great. But some hitters play above it because of their uncanny hand-eye coordination."Look at the way some of the division's best players have developed:
- Kemp's OPS since last season has climbed from .799 to .884, homers from 18 to 23, on-base percentage from .340 to .369.
- Troy Tulowitzki's OPS has improved from .733 to .893, homers from eight to 24, steals from 1 to 16, on base from .332 to .364.
- Sandoval's OPS has improved from .847 to .933, homers from three to 21, on-base percentage from .357 to .379.
- Upton's OPS has climbed from .816 to .939, homers from 15 to 23, steals from one to 18, batting average from .250 to .310, on-base percentage from .353 to .379.
- Mark Reynolds' OPS has risen from .778 to .935, homers from 28 to 40, stolen bases 11 to 22, batting average from .239 to .273, on-base percentage from .320 to .361. In the words of Jackson Browne (and Jen Villone), don't remind him of his 186 strikeouts, he has not forgotten them; he's second in the NL in homers, third in extra-base hits, sixth in runs and RBIs and ninth in OPS.
The joke is that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti could be arrested for shoplifting, as in the last two seasons he has acquired
Manny Ramirez,
Casey Blake,
George Sherrill,
Jon Garland,
Jim Thome,
Doug Mientkiewicz,
Ronnie Belliard and Vicente Padilla and paid them a combined total approximately the equal of the $2.7 million that the team saved during Manny Ramirez's suspension. San Francisco's Brian Sabean added
Freddy Sanchez and
Ryan Garko at little talent cost, has potential superstar Buster Posey to break in during this month and still hasn't exposed Madison Bumgarner. Dan O'Dowd has had to scramble with the injuries to
Aaron Cook and
Huston Street, so after acquiring
Rafael Betancourt for bullpen depth, he's countering the Penny/Padilla shot with
Jose Contreras.Remember this about the Diamondbacks: They won the division in 2007; they were in first place on Sept. 5, 2008; and with Upton, Reynolds,
Stephen Drew,
Brandon Allen, Haren, Scherzer, et al., if
Brandon Webb and Jarrod Parker come back heathy in 2010 as they are expected to do, they will be right back in the middle of a four-team scrum.For now, the Dodgers hope Garland and Padilla give them innings and support
Randy Wolf, Kershaw and
Chad Billingsley and allow Joe Torre to wait until the seventh and eighth innings before he has to ready his bullpen. Then, too, they need Ramirez to come back.Scouts who have watched the Dodgers say Manny has not been able to catch up to fastballs up in the zone since his return, which makes him subject to any conclusions you choose. His OPS from his arrival in L.A. until his suspension was 1.200; it's been .882 since. But Ramirez's history is that when he has slumped, he has had trouble connecting the leg lift of his (left) front foot and his (right) back shoulder. "That's what's been happening," Don Mattingly says. "The timing is not there, and he's flying open and spinning off and trying to hit the fastball. It's been better lately, so I think that timing will come back."As good as some of our young players are," Mattingly says, "they need Manny going well. He picks up everyone's confidence. He makes everyone better."Not that Kemp and
Andre Ethier haven't blossomed as star players. Ethier is Paul O'Neill, right to the point that the only thing distracting him is his self-disgust at making outs.This past week, 11 scouts took a poll amongst themselves on whom they would take between Ethier and Kemp. Ten took Kemp. "In my mind, watching him hit, play hard, throw, cover center field," says a GM, "he's got to be one of the 10 best players in the game." The astute Larry Bowa says, "He's improved as much in one year as anyone I've ever seen."Mattingly insists there's a lot more to come. He says that where last year Kemp tried to do everything with his athleticism and essentially hit with his upper body, he has learned to use his legs and has gradually learned to stay back on and lay off breaking balls and off-speed pitches. "There's a lot of
Gary Sheffield in Matt, in that he is never afraid," Mattingly says. "He's tough, he never gets intimidated." As Colletti points out, the fact that Kemp's best friend on the team may be Blake says something about his core love of the game.It's possible that for the second time in three seasons, the NL West will enter the playoffs with the wild-card team and perhaps even the two participants in the NLCS. Yes, baseball lives west of the Mississippi.
Meanwhile, back East, we are oversaturated with the Joba Rules, even though the Yankees essentially have clinched a playoff berth and will have Chamberlain at what should be his physical peak come October.On the other hand, look at Jim Leyland's handling of
Rick Porcello, who at 20 has two fewer wins than Chamberlain has in his three-year career. "We wouldn't be in first place without Porcello in our rotation," says Leyland, whose usage of the equivalent of a sophomore at UNC has been phenomenal.Porcello has 12 wins and, as Leyland points out, "is throwing better now than in April or May." He has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his past seven starts. He starts Tuesday on five days' rest. Porcello has made 14 starts on his normal fifth day. Tuesday will be his ninth start on his sixth day. He has started once on his seventh day. Leyland and Rick Knapp gave him a midseason "blow," so he didn't start between July 5 and July 21, around the All-Star Game. He's averaged 86 pitches per start and has thrown more than 100 once in 25 starts.That is knowing how to handle young pitching. "I couldn't have faced the veteran players if we didn't keep him out of spring training," says Leyland, "because they all know he was one of our five best. I've always said I'll take talent over experience, but protecting that talent is my job."Tigers will likely win the division by ignoring Bud Seling and going over slot to sign draft choices. Porcello cost more than $8 million -- way over his slot in 2007 -- and by going over slot to sign
Andrew Miller and
Cameron Maybin, they got
Miguel Cabrera, which means because they listened to scouting director David Chadd, drafted the right guys and paid for them. They have possibly a rookie of the year, one of the top five MVP candidates and the division.Protecting the Porcello investment simply proves once again that Leyland is one of the best managers of our time.
- The Arizona Fall League will give the Red Sox their first look at 19-year-old Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias, whom they signed this summer for $8.5 million. "We wish we'd have gotten the money to sign him, because we'd have given him $12 million," one NL GM says. "Our scouts say he's the best defensive shortstop they've ever seen."
- No one ever said anything to Leyland about benching Magglio Ordonez to avoid making his $18 million option for 2010. "He's going to make it," Leyland says. "So anyone who said otherwise has egg on his face. Dave Dombrowski has never even mentioned the vesting option."
- Washington ownership mentioned Bobby Valentine in every GM interview, so don't count Bobby V. out of that job.
- Mike Lowell is someone you'd want to respect you, and he says "the two players I most enjoy watching are Chase Utley and Michael Young."
