| | It's September so talk is shifting to postseason awards and scenarios for teams next season. As always, ESPN.com baseball columnist Rob Neyer doesn't shy from a good argument.
Read what he thinks about the chances of a closer winning the Cy Young Award and how some teams shape up for next season.
An edited transcript from his Sept. 22 chat follows:
Rob Neyer: Two o'clock and all's well, so let's chat or something.
John from Brooklyn: In your column the other day, you mentioned that the Phillies had a shot at second place next year. You don't seriously think that they could finish any better than third when it would seem that the Braves and Mets own first and second?
Rob Neyer:
Hmmm, didn't the Indians "own" the American League Central entering this season?
No, you're right, a lot of things would have to happen for the Phillies to finish second, because the Mets are likely to make a big move this off-season, pick up a slugging outfielder (or shortstop). My point was that the Phillies aren't really this bad, and if I were making a list of teams likely to improve next season, they'd be near the top.
|  | | The White Sox's Frank Thomas has been putting the hurt on everyone. |
Hugh DeMann:
Why is Robb Nen getting no attention for the Cy Young Award? Have you ever seen a pitcher so dominating?
Rob Neyer:
History is quite clear on this. A closer will not win the Cy Young Award unless there aren't any starters enjoying great seasons. So given the performances of Johnson and Maddux, Nen will be lucky to finish third in the balloting. And as great as he's been, I think that's about right. Great closers simply aren't as valuable as great starters, which shows up in the salaries they earn.
Caleb:
Do you think Art Howe was relying too much on statistics, not starting Velarde in last night's game because of his history against Moyer (1 for his last 20)?
Rob Neyer: Well, Earl Weaver always said you need about 20 at-bats to "prove" anything, though of course the number is probably greater than that. But what's wrong with giving a guy the night off? Anyway, they won, so it's hard to criticize.
Jeff in Tn:
You mention Johnson and Maddux in regards to the Cy Young, but what about Tom Glavine? Wouldn't you have to say that he is more deserving than either of the two mentioned?
Rob Neyer: I forget, what's the argument for Glavine? That he's got one more victory than Johnson and Maddux? Well, this doesn't make up for his 3.61 ERA, which is ninth in the National League and significantly higher than those of both Johnson (2.31) and Maddux (3.00). Seems to me that Johnson is the clear choice right now, and will have to pitch himself out of the Cy Young.
Marcus:
I read or heard recently that Red Sox GM Dan Duquette would like to get Mike Mussina for next year... however likely or unlikely a scenario, what do you think would be the impact on the Sox of adding one top-flight pitcher, assuming no other major changes?
Rob Neyer:
Given all the salary Duquette's taken on for next season, it's really, really hard to see him finding another $12 million or whatever for Mussina. I'm sure he would like to find a quality starter, but the brilliant acquisitions of Mike Lansing and Dante Bichette will probably preclude such a thing.
A's Fan:
Since Giambi now has a higher ops than Frank Thomas wouldn't you consider him the main threat to Delgado for AL MVP? Would he get the nod over Delgado and ARod if he carries the A's past the Mariners the last week and a half?
Rob Neyer: Baseball writers don't look at ops, they look at RBI. And given that Thomas still leads the American League in RBI and is 16 ahead of Giambi, it's hard to see Giambi out-balloting Thomas. Giambi would have to absolutely destroy the baseball over the next nine days to have any chance at all. I think he'll finish fourth.
Michael Wolverton:
Rob, In your ESPN column, why don't you use more discriminating metrics when judging pitchers, such as Support-Neutral Value Added?
Rob Neyer:
In part, because I don't want to be typing Support-Neutral Value Added very often. Also, I don't want to be discriminatory, because I work for Disney and that's the kind of thing that gets people fired.
Dave:
Tommy John just said on MLB Radio that 120 or 130 pitches is not a lot of pitches. Of all of the people that you would think should respect pitch counts, he would be the one. What do you think?
Rob Neyer:
I think that Tommy's still stuck in the 1960s, at least when it comes to pitch counts for young hurlers.
Adam W:
How do you see the Royals starting rotation shaping up next season? Will there be free agent additions, or will Tony and Brent keep their young studs throwing fastballs?
Rob Neyer:
The rotation you see now will be the rotation you see next year, notwithstanding the likely addition of Jose Rosado at some point. And yeah, they're going to stick with the establish-the-fastball "philosophy" that's resulted in the worst ERA in the American League.
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NEYER'S FILE
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ESPN.com's Rob Neyer: writes a daily baseball column from March through October. His book "Baseball Dynasties," co-authored with Eddie Epstein, has just been published, and can be ordered from Amazon.com. |
Mattyo:
Why do you prefer Quinn over Long for AL Rookie of the Year. Hometown bias, or is there something else?
Rob Neyer:
Whoa there, pardner. I last argued for Quinn a few weeks ago, and the picture has changed a bit. While it's true that Quinn's been slightly more productive, he's a crummy outfielder and Long plays a decent center field. Plus, Quinn recently missed a few games with an injury. So at this moment I'd put Long ahead of Quinn in the Rookie of the Year sweepstakes ... and I rate Sasaki ahead of both.
Chris:
Who do you think will win the NL rookie of the year award?
Rob Neyer:
Furcal seems like everyone's first choice at this point. Ankiel's deserving, too -- his 3.62 ERA ranks 10th in the NL, just behind Glavine -- but he's only got 10 wins, and that won't impress many voters.
Art:
Rob, you said in your column today that games in September mean more than ever...I wasn't aware that MLB changed the rules and that a win in September now counts more than a win in June. What is the formula (is it September wins count 1.5 times as much as June wins)? Just curious...
Rob Neyer:
Of course they all count the same. That said, baseball in September feels different, and not just to me. If you saw the Red Sox-Indians games this week, you know that the managers manage differently, and the players are just a little more intense. It's impossible to maintain a high level of intensity for 162 games, so players tend to save a little bit for when they need it.
JD:
Gammons said considering Kazuhiro Sasaki a "rookie" is an insult to international professional baseball leagues. I don't care about his age, but this seems to be a fair point. If you've played pro ball before, are you a rookie?
Rob Neyer: So is considering Mark Quinn a "rookie" an insult to the Pacific Coast League? I see Peter's point, but what is MLB supposed to do? Decide which of the non-North American professional baseball leagues cause a player to lose his rookie status, and which don't?
Mattyo:
Did you know that John Olerud has never hit between .299 and .353?
Rob Neyer:
I didn't, but since there were only two seasons above .353 (.363 in 1993, .354 in 1998), I would say that it's just a fluky thing. Interesting, but fluky.
Scotth:
You've been saying you could see the Astros be quite successful again next year despite a terrible season. I tend to agree with you but how does such a major swing in success occur?
Rob Neyer:
Well, will the talent level be significantly lower in 2001 than it was in 1999, when the Astros won 97 games?
No.
Have the Astros been incredibly unlucky this season?
Yes.
This suggests to me that the Astros will contend for the NL Central title in 2001, though they'll need some things to go right. Jose Lima needs to bounce back, and Craig Biggio needs to rediscover his lost youth.
Joe:
Rob, you are such a punk. Why should we be concerned about your opinions again? What are your credentials? Somehow you get a very pompus tone in your writing. Is there anyway we can vote you off?
Rob Neyer:
1. No reason.
2. No credentials.
3. My best advice is to avoid my column and my chats. Eventually, my superiors will get the message. Good luck.
Robert:
Hey Rob!, what do you think about Omar Daal´s performance yesterday?
Rob Neyer:
Well, he obviously pitched well, just got a no-decision for his efforts. You know what was interesting about that game? Brian Kingman was there, and apparently he doesn't want Daal to lose 20. Kingman likes being the last guy to lose 20, because once he loses that, he's off the map.
Dog Catcher:
The Giants have just set an attendance record, privately financed the best park in the game, and have just won their second division crown in four years. Plus they do it professionally and with an unusual unity fostered by the best manager in baseball? Why doesn't this story receive more national attention?
Rob Neyer: Rather than respond to this directly, I'll use my last few moments to make a larger point (or at least attempt to make a larger point).
In sifting through today's chat questions, I have seen people wonder why the following teams haven't been given more national attention: Mets, White Sox, Cardinals, Mariners ... and yes, the Giants. My advice to fans who think their team has been neglected is this: Get over it. Unless you love the Yankees, you're always going to feel neglected, and all the complaining in the world ain't going to change that.
Excelsior!
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Rob Neyer chat archive
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