| | ESPN.com minor league baseball expert John Sickels recently returned to the chat room to take your questions on some of the up and coming names to keep an eye on.
From Josh Beckett to Eric Valent to Jeff Austin, we've got the lowdown right here.
Check out the transcript from Sickel's Aug. 23 chat below.
Michael: I have a question about Twins OF Ruben Salazar. He hit .401 last year in the Appalachian
League and is hitting .317 with 10 HR and 60 RBI in the FSL this year. Is he going to be really
good or are these stats inflated? It seems as if he is on a faster track than Garbe. Is that true?
John Sickels: Salazar is a legit hitter. He has great bat speed, some understanding of the strike zone, and a
compact stroke. I'm sure he'll continue to hit for average, although I don't know how much
power he will show at the higher levels. The question is defense. They've used him mostly at
second base, but he is worse than Todd Walker was defensively. Salazar isn't much better in
the outfield either and has a weak arm. I think he'll hit, but I don't know how they will get him in
the lineup.
richy17: I realize this has been a very frequently asked question this year, but what is the status with
Nick Johnson?
John Sickels: The last I heard, they were referring to "unusual" tissue damage causing his sore wrist. I expect
he is out for the rest of the year. Long-term, it is hard to say what will happen to him. He
looked unstoppable a year ago, but wrist injuries are really bad for a lot of hitters. At the least,
it will probably slow his power development.
John: What happened to Darnell McDonald, back in 1997 he was rated as a top draft choice, after
slipping in the draft he has never done anything special.
John Sickels: He's never learned to use his athletic skills on the field. He is still young and isn't a lost cause
yet, but he needs to get a better idea of the strike zone if he wants to live up to his potential.
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SICKELS' FILE
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Sickels worked as Bill James' research assistant from 1993 to 1996. He's authored five editions of the STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. In addition, Sickels provides minor-league profiles for ESPN.com. Sickels received his BA in European history and philosophy from Northwest Missouri State University in 1990, and his MA in modern European history from the University of Kansas in 1993. John lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife Jeri, his son Nicholas, and their two cats. He spends his days talking care of Nicholas and his nights being a baseball fan.
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2001Philly: Eric Valent seems to be making decent progress through the Phillies system. A mediocre .261 BA
masks a .471 slg and .363 OBP. However, Valent has a huge reverse split. He's hitting
.320-.616-.424 against lefties and only .237-.410-.337 against righthanders. Does this mean
anything when evaluating a minor leaguer or is it just a fluke?
John Sickels: Well, I usually don't pay much attention to platoon splits over just a single season; 200 at-bats
or so isn't a big enough sample to draw conclusions. I'd have to look at Valent's platoon splits
over several seasons to know if there is something unusual going on or not. I do like him as a
sleeper ... he should move up to Triple-A next year. I don't think he will be a star, but I could see
him developing into a Rusty Greer-type.
chris: John can you please update me on Josh Beckett? How long do you think it will take for him to
reach the majors?
John Sickels: He has pitched very well this year, but is having more arm soreness now and is on the sidelines
again. He looks great in A-ball, but so do a lot of other guys, and I have concerns about his
health given the fragility he has shown this year. The fact that he was bothered by the sore arm
this year has slowed his development, and makes it more likely that the Marlins will have to rush
him, like the A's did Todd Van Poppel, given Beckett's contract status.
C'sigs: What's your take on Greg Wooten at Seattle's AA team in New Haven? He's got amazing
numbers with especially good control (16-3, 2.34, only 12 walks in 160+ innings). I'm not under
the impression he was a big prospect before the season ... does he have the stuff for the bigs?
John Sickels: He was a good prospect when he came out of college (I think it was 1996), but he has had arm
trouble and doesn't throw as hard as he used to. As you point out, he's got great command and
is healthy now, but his stuff is average. If he maintains his command in the majors, he can
succeed, but keep in mind that most finesse guys struggle the first time they reach the majors.
Disco Stu: Jeff Austin was putting up terrific AA K/W numbers before a fairly rude awakening in Omaha.
A bump in the road or is it something more?
John Sickels: Austin has always needed adjustment time at each level. I expect he'll go to spring training with
an outside shot at the Royals rotation, but will fail to win a job and go back to Omaha to begin
2001. He'll pitch very well there and get a callup sometime in May or early June 2001, but will
be mediocre at best for the Royals the rest of the year. Then in 2002 he'll do better, provided
his confidence survives. My prediction ...
Joshua Luetkemeyer: Hey Mr. Sickels, I was wondering why Bud Smith (pitching for the Memphis Redbirds) wasn't
getting any press. He currently has a 15 game winning streak. He's 20-years-old and has
dominated both AA and AAA this year so far. I believe his combined record is 16-1 with a sub
3 era. Is he not considered a good prospect for a certain reason? Thanks for your time.
John Sickels: I wrote about him earlier this year ... you should be able to find the article in the archives
somewhere, and perhaps the kindly editors at ESPN will put a link to it in the transcript of this
chat session (hint, hint). Smith doesn't throw a blazing fastball, which is why he is overlooked,
but he has decent velocity and knows what he is doing. I think he's a very good prospect.
Darren: John, Carlos Pena seems to me like he's ready to play in Texas. His strike zone judgement is
great for a young hitter. Does he fit into Texas' plans in the near future?
John Sickels: The Rangers love him. He'll be the starter in 2002 for sure, and maybe sometime next year
depending on what happens with other players.
buzz: Does Adam Johnson {Twins first round pick} have what it takes to suceed. So far he is 2-4
but with a 3.55 ERA. Also 61 K's in 47 innings
John Sickels: Oh, yeah, he has the stuff to succeed ... he has the best fastball in the Twins system already, and
he throws strikes. I expect he'll begin next year in Double-A, and if he pitches well he could see
the majors very quickly.
T: What is your opinion on Joun Parrish, since the O's called him up he has been effectively wild
and is enjoying success.
John Sickels: I wish him well, but frankly I don't think his success will last. There is nothing in John Parrish's
record to make me confident of his ability to survive in the major leagues long-term. That
doesn't mean he won't ... some pitchers do better in the majors than they ever did in the minors,
but I just don't think Parrish falls into that category.
jh: What's your take on Evan Thomas in the Phillies system? It seems like he's been one of their
better pitchers at every level, especially this year at AAA, but I never hear him mentioned as a
prospect.
John Sickels: Thomas has been one of my favorites since he was in college at Florida Atlantic. He has an
awesome curveball, and his fastball can hit 90 MPH, although 88 is more common. He also has
good command, and as you point out, he has experienced success at every level. His main
problem in the eyes of scouts is that he is short ... officially 5-10, but possibly shorter. Don't let
anyone trick you into thinking that pro baseball is a pure meritocracy ... plenty of pitchers with
worse resumes than Thomas have gotten chance after chance in the majors, just because scouts
liked them. I don't think Thomas will be a star or anything, but I would be very surprised if he
doesn't turn into a useful pitcher someday, provided he gets the chance to show us.
Nate: Does Shawn Sonnier (AA pitching prospect for KC) have any shot at the big leagues next
year? I saw he will be playing in the AFL this fall. Will a good performance in the fall give him a
great chance at the big league ball club?
John Sickels: Sonnier throws 93 MPH and has a good slider. Yes, he has a good chance to help in the
Royals bullpen next year.
Jay: Can I get your opinion on the Orioles first round pick Beau Hale. Does he have the stuff to be a
No. 1 or No. 2 starter as projected?
John Sickels: I don't see Hale as a No. 1 Mussina-type ace, but a solid No. 2 guy, yeah, I can see that. He throws
hard and threw strikes in college this year after struggling in previous seasons. Some people
think he would be better off as a closer, so we will have to see what the Orioles do with him.
WR2B: Is Scott Seabol considered a legitimate prospect with the good season he's having at AA?
John Sickels: He is having a good year and deserves a long shot in Triple-A next year, but at age 25 he doesn't
have much development time yet, and his strike zone judgment is a bit questionable.
Blake Narendra: I was just wondering what are the chances of the Twins competing in the next two years? The
Twins seem to have a pretty good nucleus of pitchers, but their offensive production is pretty
small. Do you think the Twins will be an improved team next year?
John Sickels: Lots and lots of Twins questions today! That's cool. They deserve more attention than they get.
Blake, the Twins have the nucleus of an excellent pitching staff in Radke, Milton, Redman, and
Kinney if his control holds up. Tom Kelly has always been able to piece bullpens together from
scrap parts, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Twins are in the top three in ERA within the
next year or two. But they have to find a way to get more hitters in the lineup. If Ortiz, Koskie,
and Jones continue to develop on schedule, if they keep Matt Lawton around for OBP
purposes, and if they let LeCroy play, they have a good core there, too. They should be better
next year, and unless something horrible goes wrong (as it did with the last rebuilding phase in
the mid-1990s) they could be contenders within two or three years. But plans have a way of
evaporating ...
alex bozich: What is your take on Jon Rauch, the 6-10 right-hander the White Sox have promoted to
Birmingham from Winston-Salem?
John Sickels: This will have to be the last question, since my computer is acting funny again. I like Rauch a
lot ... he has good stuff, and surprisingly good command for a guy so tall. The White Sox have
really stockpiled the pitching in their last few drafts. Rauch was just a third-round pick last year
because he had a bad college season, but the Sox knew what they were doing when they picked
him.
Well, I have to go now before my computer crashes ... old reliable Pentium-100, but sometimes
she goes through these lock-up things. Anyhow, I'm sorry I couldn't answer every question, but
I do appreciate all the interest. Feel free to email me mailbag questions for the weekly column.
Also, I'll be appearing this year at the Arizona Fall League Baseball Conference sponsered by
Baseball HQ on October 26-29. You can find out more at baseballhq.com. Thanks everyone.
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ALSO SEE
Major League Baseball chat room
John Sickels' Farm Report chat archive
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