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 Wednesday, August 9
Young guns leading the charge
 
 With so many rookies providing needed boosts to their respective teams, ESPN.com's Rob Neyer took a quick look at who is leading the way in Rookie of the Year consideration. With Pat Burrell's recent McGwire-esque home runs for the Phillies, you have to wonder if he isn't in the lead.

"I think that both he and Rafael Furcal have a great chance to pass Rick Ankiel in the Rookie of the Year sweepstakes, given that Ankiel has won only seven games," says Neyer.

In his weekly chat with ESPN.com users, Neyer touched on a variety of topics including his beloved Royals, "clutch pitching" and the New York Mets postseason hopes.

In case you missed the August 9 chat, the following is an edited transcript.

Thomas: The M's have the largest run differential in the majors, yet they're three games under their expected winning percentage (according to the Pythagorean Theorem, they should be 70-43, not 67-46). They also lead the league in caught stealing and sacrifice bunts. Are Lou's small ball tactics costing this team wins?

Rob Neyer
: I'm no fan of Uncle Lou's sick predilection for small ball, but three games off a Pythagorean projection actually isn't much, especially at this point in the season.

Ian: If you ever ran into Tony Muser, what would you say to him? Would you stick to your guns and tell him what you think of his managing, or wimp out, be polite and say nothing?

Rob Neyer
: I'm sure I would wimp out. Not only is Muser tougher than me, I also know that all my harangues wouldn't make a bit of difference. I think the guy's an idiot, but I feel sorry for idiots ... unless they're driving my favorite team into the ground. Which Muser is.

NEYER'S FILE
ESPN.com's Rob Neyer writes a daily baseball column from March through October. His book "Baseball Dynasties," co-authored with Eddie Epstein, has just been published, and can be ordered from Amazon.com.

LocalYokel: What is up with Brian Daubach? Will he ride the bench upon Jose Offerman's return?

Rob Neyer
: Believe it or not, the Red Sox are so desperate for offense that they're apparently toying with the idea of playing Daubach at third base against right-handed pitchers. God knows Ed Sprague ain't doing the job.

Jon: With the recent spending spree coming out of the Bronx, do you think the Yankees are feeling insecure in their position? It's as if they have the philosophy that throwing money around will let them regain a position of dominance. They are a good team, but it seems like they are afraid.

Rob Neyer
: Sure they're feeling insecure, but who's going to beat them in the East. The Red Sox? The Blue Jays? Please.

I suspect the Yanks will get their comeuppance in October, though, because they're not as good as the White Sox or Mariners, and they might not be as good as whichever club takes the Wild Card.

Royals fan: Do the playoffs unduly reward "shallow" pitching staffs with two aces and very poor 3-4 men? Could/should something be done about that?

Rob Neyer
: I think you overstate your case a little, you generally do need three quality starters, the 1987 Twins notwithstanding. But I do think that postseason baseball is different, due to the days off. That's why I would eliminate said days off during the postseason, at least during individual series.

Matt: How come you claim that there is no such thing as a "clutch hitter" but you don't apply the same concept to pitching? You say Sazaki deserves Rookie of the Year even though Kelly Wunsch has an ERA that is a run less and fewer walks. The only reason you give Sazaki the nod is because of saves which I think is the most overrated stat. Do you honestly believe Wunsch would not have comparable numbers if he were closing as opposed to pitching in the 7th or the 8th inning? This is a complete contradiction to your theory that there is no such thing as a "clutch hitter."

Rob Neyer
: If you can demonstrate that the runs saved by Wunsch are just as critical to his team's success as those saved by Kazuhiro Sasaki (which you misspelled, by the way), then you might have an argument. But I think it's fair to say that most of the time, the innings pitched by a closer are more critical than those pitched by a set-up man. So the burden of proof lies with you, not me.

Joe: Do the Mariner's plan on bringing Ryan Anderson up anytime soon? Haven't heard much of him lately.

Rob Neyer
: You haven't heard much lately because he hasn't pitched much lately. In fact, he's apparently suffering from shoulder tendinitis, and it looks like the M's might just shut him down for the season.

-Tom.: Is your bud Johnny Damon really stepping it up a notch, or do you think this is just another statistical fluke? In your opinion, has he peaked, or is he still getting better? Where do you think his ceiling is?

Rob Neyer
: He's not going to hit .470 the rest of the season, but I think he's really this good. And at 26, Damon should only get better. I'll be surprised if he doesn't play in two or three All-Star Games down the line.

Scotth23: Rob, after a great spring, Jorge Posada has cooled tremendously. Is the real Posada standing up?

Rob Neyer
: Sure he is. Did anyone really expect to see Johnny Bench reincarnated for a whole season? Posada's better than he showed in 1999, not as good as he showed in the first half of 2000. A fine player, perhaps the No. 2 catcher in the American League after Pudge.

Ageless Buhner: I was pleased to see the Mariners re-acquire Chris Widger, despite his weak play in Montreal. I was wondering if you think this bodes the end for Dan Wilson as the regular catcher in Seattle?

Rob Neyer
: Strange move. Pinella flat-out said that Widger won't take any playing time from Wilson and Joe Oliver ... so what's he doing on the roster? Wilson's on his last legs as an everyday player, but Widger's really no better.

Sorry about all the Mariner questions, that's the last one for today, I promise.

MetsFan: You seem to aviod Mets questions, so I might be wasting my time. Do you think the Mets are still in over their heads in trying to catch the Braves in the East? If not, do you think they are a favorite to win the wild card?

Rob Neyer
: Sorry about avoiding Mets questions, it's just that I'm such a biased jerk sometimes ... Anyway, I don't think the Mets will catch the Braves, but you certainly have to like their Wild Card chances. They should win 90-94 games, which may well be good enough.

fairleym: What is your take on the recent fire sale coming out of Baltimore? Did the O's really get anyone of value, and why couldn't they win with the team they had?

Rob Neyer
: The O's didn't get a lot of talent, but they did get some decent young players and they shed a fair amount of salary obligations. They couldn't win because their pitching stinks, due in large part to their utter inability to develop pitchers within the system.

Beckdog: Do you think the Indians will catch the A's for the wild card? It looks like the A's could be showing signs of cracking.

Rob Neyer: Those are the two clubs to watch, and I have to give the edge to Oakland because (1) they've got a 2.5-game lead, and (2) Manny Ramirez might be heading for the DL again.

Jeff in Philly: What do you think of the Phillies young players? Will they stay with the team and will they ever win? And do you want to reconsider your Rookie of the Year thoughts now that Pat Burrell leads all rookies in home runs and RBI's after his second grand slam last night? He has a very nice OPS, a stat that you seem to love.

Rob Neyer
: I still like the Phillies, but they'll need more pitching than they've got now, because somebody's going to break down. As for Burrell, I think that both he and Rafael Furcal have a great chance to pass Rick Ankiel in the Rookie of the Year sweepstakes, given that Ankiel has won only seven games.

Wally the Green Monster: The wheels have really started to come off the Red Sox wagon, and due to some recent dubious acquisitions, and somewhat lackluster farm prospects, it looks like next year won't be any great shakes either. Would you qualify the BoSox as a "franchise in trouble?"

Rob Neyer
: The Red Sox are afflicted by an incredibly non-productive farm system, which results in wasting at-bats on players like Ed Sprague and Bernard Gilkey and Troy O'Leary and Manny Alexander. Things are getting better, but certainly not soon enough to help this season.

Neal: Is Garret Anderson making OPS (and you) look foolish? I love the stat, but the man still produces despite low walk totals.

Rob Neyer
: Says who? What, exactly, is Anderson producing???

Seems to me that he's producing a bunch of outs, and not nearly enough runs. It's very, very difficult for a hitter with a .285 on-base percentage to positivly influence run production.

John in Tampa: Rob, which franchise is on pace to be another Oakland or Chicago White Sox (building through the farm system to become a contender)?

Rob Neyer
: Hmmm ... I'd say the Royals, if they had a different manager and a pitching coach with a functioning cerebral cortex. The Phillies, if they can keep the young pitchers healthy, because Bobby Abreu - Pat Burrell - Scott Rolen - Mike Lieberthal are practically a whole lineup by themselves. The Marlins, I guess, but I still can't quite see where the offense will come from. Expos could be good next year, too.

Leicester Fan: OPS under-states the value of walks pretty seriously, so sluggers have a big advantage in the stat. Can you think of any simple way to rectify this and still have a useful "thumbnail" stat?

Rob Neyer
: Sure. And I've written about this a few times. A better measure would be (1.2*OBP) + Slugging ... but frankly, it usually isn't worth the trouble, and it would make my life a bit more difficult.

Thanks for all the questions. Sorry I couldn't answer more of them -- and I'll see you next week.
 


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Rob Neyer chat archive