| | ESPN.com baseball columnist Rob Neyer recently dropped by for his weekly chat show and managed to touch on several topics of interest including the battle between Pedro Martinez and David Wells for AL Cy Young and who is better; Alex Rodriguez or Nomar Garciaparra?
Neyer also elaborated on Carlos Beltran's suspension, some of his favorite baseball writers and whether or not being a baseball analyst helps with the ladies.
In case you missed the August 4 chat, the following is an edited transcript.
Ed in NC: Hey Rob: Do you write up the "Power Alley" comments that appear on the website every now and then? A lot of them are really funny and it seems like your style of humor. Plus I see this interesting stat called OPS mentioned a lot, not to mention a little negative bias towards the New York teams (thanks). How are these rankings selected anyway?
Rob Neyer: I want to correct a common misconception. If you see something on the site, even something that sounds like me, if you don't see my byline then I almost certainly didn't write it. Most probably, it was David Schoenfield, ESPN.com's humble baseball editor. And that's generally the case with the Power Alley comments. As for how the rankings are selected, it's a lot of Pythagorean Method (runs scored and runs allowed) and a little subjective judgment.
nycasper: What do you think about the Yankees acquisition of Luis Polonia? Does it even matter?
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NEYER'S FILE
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ESPN.com's Rob Neyer writes a daily baseball column from March through October. His book "Baseball Dynasties," co-authored with Eddie Epstein, has just been published, and can be ordered from Amazon.com. |
Rob Neyer: Hmmm, picking up a guy with a .326 on-base percentage to serve as your leadoff hitter ... anybody want to supply the punchline?
Polonia's not a good player, but his non-goodness doesn't make much difference, the Yankees will still win the East. I'm not quite so sanguine about their World Series chances, though.
Frank: How close do you think Pedro Martinez needs to get to David Wells in wins in order to win the Cy Young? At the All-Star break Wells was six ahead (15-3 to 9-3), and in an ESPN.com article five out of six writers gave the half-year Cy Young to Wells despite the huge difference in ERA.
Rob Neyer: As long as Wells doesn't go nuts and win 27 games or something, Pedro's got a good shot. But if the latter finishes with five or six wins fewer than the former, we might well see an injustice done.
Louis: Even though the Dodgers are only 2½ out of first with a dominant proven pitcher in Kevin Brown, it seems that nobody gives them a chance to overtake the Giants or D-Backs. Why?
Rob Neyer: Well, for one thing they're in third place, and catching (and passing) two teams is more difficult than catching (and passing) one. What's more, their lineup looks fairly soft once you get past Gary Sheffield and Shawn Green and Todd Hundley.
Could they win? You bet. But they are in third place.
J.L.: As to your Polonia punchline ...
"Having Polonia as your leadoff hitter is like having George W. Bush as your Advanced Calculus professor."
-- or --
"The day when someone with a .326 OBP is considered a productive leadoff hitter is the day when Tony Muser is considered a baseball genius (AGAIN!!!)."
Rob Neyer: No comment.
Kendogger: I recognize Alex Rodriguez's greatness. But what of the fact that this year, Nomar Garciaparra has a higher OPS, and an even higher slugging percentage than him. How come we never see a word about that?
Rob Neyer: Minor Point: Garciaparra plays in a good hitter's park. Major Point: Garciaparra is two years older than Alex.
Bottom line, at this point Garciaparra is the better hitter. But because of the age difference, Rodriguez still has the bigger up-side, if he can stop hurting himself.
brent: Do you think the Mariners have a chance if they reach the playoffs?
Rob Neyer: I do think they have a chance. One thing concerns me, though ... One of Seattle's biggest strengths is their incredibly deep rotation. And in October, that's the one thing that you really don't need. The M's lack a Cy Young candidate, and that might hurt them.
BF: Is it possible to score at parties with all the chicks knowing you are a baseball analyst?
Rob Neyer: Possible? Hey, anything's possible. Probable? Nah.
DanL: What's your take on the whole Carlos Beltran suspension thing?
Rob Neyer: I've read everything I can find, and it seems that there's plenty of blame to go around. But frankly, you have to wonder about an organization that, in the last few months, has (1) sent Mark Quinn to Omaha, (2) sent prospect Dee Brown to the Instructional League, and (3) suspended last year's Rookie of the Year. I'm not saying that none of these actions were justified, but why do the Royals have so many disciplinary problems with their players?
Tom: How are the Yanks 6th in runs scored per game when they have three of the worst regulars in the AL? Seems like they would be a lot lower.
Rob Neyer: Great question, and I have two answers. One, they're sixth but it's not a strong sixth; a bunch of teams are bunched up in the middle, and the Yanks aren't close to the leaders. And two, Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter can help make up for a lot of deficiencies.
Hombre X: Who are your favorite baseball writers, outside of analysts and sabermetricians?
Rob Neyer: I know I'm going to forget somebody, but the names that leap to mind are Buster Olney (N.Y. Times), Bernie Miklasz (St. Louis Post-Dispatch), Jim Caple (Seattle Post-Intelligencer and ESPN.com, of course) and Bob Nightengale (Baseball Weekly). Baseball writing is like most things, there are a few idiots, a bunch of mediocrities, and a few true talents.
kevdow: Why does ESPN focus on the AL East race when there are two better teams battling it out in the AL West? Imagine how good the A's and M's would be if they had as much money as those lesser teams back east.
Rob Neyer: Well, the national media is East Coast-centric, simply because that's where most of the news organizations -- including ESPN -- are based. It's always been that way, and probably always will be. Plus, even by the conclusion of the late edition of Baseball Tonight, most of the West Coast games haven't ended yet. So it's also a time-zone thing.
The M's have roughly the same payroll as the Red Sox. But if Billy Beane could spend $75 million every year, the A's would win 95-100 games and become the Braves of the West.
Jesse Perrigo: Rob, Carlton Fisk thanked former Red Sox minor league coach/manager, Rac Slider, in his acceptance speech. What do you know about Rac Slider?
Rob Neyer: I know he served as a coach with the major league Red Sox from 1987 through 1990, and I know that every time I heard his name in those years, I thought, "Wow, that's a great baseball name."
Master of Crocodiles: Baseball Prospectus recently ran a ranking of the top 10 and bottom 10 SS in the majors (they're doing every other position too). Derek Jeter was ranked dead last, and the writer (Gary Huckabay, I think) went as far as to call Jeter's D "positively horrible" and said it costs the Yanks 20-30 runs per year. Do you agree with this assessment?
Rob Neyer: That's Gary, never one to shy away from controversy. I'll tell you this, Gary knows a lot more about evaluating defense than I do. Take that for what it's worth.
CaPhilsFan: How much longer does Curt Schilling have in his career? Will he finish it as a member of the Diamondbacks?
Rob Neyer: I have no idea. But I'd like to take this opportunity to point out some surprising facts:
1. Curt Schilling has won a grand total of 107 games.
2. Curt Schilling has never won more than 17 games in a season.
Home Boy: You mentioned in your column that Lance Berkman is not considered a rookie. Could you take the time to elaborate the reasons why here in this chat room? Please?
Rob Neyer: Well, since you asked nicely ... Berkman simply spent too much time on the major league roster last year. For the exact definitions of "rookie," check out the FAQ at MLB's web site (www.majorleaguebaseball.com).
lienus44: What do you think will happen to Rickey Henderson's performance now that Al Martin is an M?
Rob Neyer: It's a balancing act, that's for sure. If Martin plays as much as he should, Henderson will probably play even worse than he has. Frankly, the Mariners have guys who can play left field against lefties, and if Rickey doesn't want to be there, they should let him go.
Chuck Knoblauch: How does someone get a job as a "baseball expert"? Judging by your lack of knowledge on every subject from Curt Schilling to the Yankees, I'd have to say the No. 1 quality is to be a blithering idiot.
Rob Neyer: Well, that helps. And it also helps if your uncle is Chris Berman.
Zzyzx: Why is Shawn Green really slumping? His OBP is nearly the same as last year .384/.388 respectively, but his slugging percentage is down nearly 100 points .588/.499. Have NL pitchers figured him out?
Rob Neyer: Green's "decline" should not be a surprise. Last year was the best of his career, and he moved from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park. He remains a fine player.
irfan94: What do you think the chances are of Washington D.C. getting Vladimir Guerrero and the Montreal franchise as soon as next year?
Rob Neyer: I have yet to see a rational answer to this sort of question, and I'm afraid I'm not going to supply one, either. I do think the Expos will spend at least one more season in Montreal, and I know that Peter Angelos will have a conniption if MLB tries to put a team in D.C. And when Angelos has a conniption, just sit back and watch the lawsuits fly.
CardsFan: Is your new book Baseball Dynasties out yet? I went to the bookstore and the only thing I could find was the Costas book.
Rob Neyer: It's been out since late March. If you couldn't find it in your local bookstore, it's because they didn't realize just how much demand there would be (heh heh). I suggest ordering Baseball Dynasties from your favorite Internet book-seller. And thanks for asking.
Matt Fisher: Can I just say that I enjoy reading your column every day here on ESPN.com. Do you ever run out of things to write about?
Rob Neyer: Thanks, Matt. Baseball is such a rich game, after almost five seasons of doing this I still have never run out of things to write about. I am, on the other hand, out of time for today.
See you next week. | |
ALSO SEE
Rob Neyer chat archive
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