| | With the Curt Schilling trade becoming official right as Rob Neyer was sitting down in front of the computer, we knew we were in for some of the latest news on the MLB trade front. And that is exactly what we got.
The ESPN.com baseball columnist gave his take on Schilling in a Diamondbacks uniform and pontificated on numerous other trade possibilities including the Mariners, Indians and A's.
Neyer also vehemently defended his use of the OPS stat and stated why the Cardinals have no chance of being the Team of the Decade.
In case you missed the July 26 chat, the following is an edited transcript.
Boswash: Hypothetical: If your first baseman hits like a shortstop, but your shortstop hits like a first baseman, do you have a problem?
Rob Neyer: Yeah, you do. Because you're not scoring as many runs as you might, given just a decent first baseman. And since you can't walk down the street without tripping over a decent first baseman, there's really no excuse for not having one.
bucc: What's wrong with Andy Ashby's 136 pitches? Isn't that what they brought him over for? One game against the Mets is worth two games in the standings. I think that would be worth it with a 33-year-old veteran.
Rob Neyer: Well, that two-game swing is indeed important. But you're making a couple of assumptions here, those being that (1) the Braves would have lost that game if Ashby had been removed, and (2) Ashby won't lose some games later in the season, in part because he threw all those pitches.
And I suspect that one or both of those assumptions might prove incorrect.
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NEYER'S FILE
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ESPN.com's Rob Neyer writes a daily baseball column from March through October. His book "Baseball Dynasties," co-authored with Eddie Epstein, has just been published, and can be ordered from Amazon.com. |
Jimchaos: Rob -- Is Omar Daal a good bet to return to form next year for the Phils? How does a Daal, Randy Wolf, Robert Person, Bruce Chen rotation strike you as far as the team's chances to finally get back into contention next season?
Rob Neyer: In case anyone hasn't heard, the Phillies and Diamandbacks have finalized their trade, with Curt Schilling going to Arizona, and Travis Lee, Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla and Nelson Figueroa going to Philadelphia.
If his arm is sound, there's no good reason that Daal shouldn't come around eventually. As for this new teammates, I worry that their arms have been abused, so I'm not excited about the prospects for Wolf and Person.
notano'sfan: Does the addition of Schilling clinch the division for Arizona?
Rob Neyer: I wouldn't go that far. But whereas a day ago, I would have given the Diamondbacks perhaps a 45 percent chance of winning, with the Giants and Dodgers roughly splitting the other 55 percent, now I would give Arizona maybe a 60 percent chance. Assuming, of course, that Schilling is close to 100 percent, health-wise.
Nate Wood: How good are the Mariners, and how will trading for Johnny Damon or Rondell White impact the team?
Rob Neyer: I think they're the best team in the American League, but this year that's not saying a whole lot. Damon's a better fit as a leadoff guy, but I don't see the Royals trading him until this winter, if then.
OUMan: Hey Rob, Not a lot has been said about Toronto's naming Dave Stewart as pitching coach. But hopefully he'll help - the Jays supposedly had a great young staff, but what's happening? Roy Halladay - an ERA over 10?
Rob Neyer: I love the move. Stewart has just one year of experience as a pitching coach, but that one year was in 1998, and his Padres pitching staff reached the postseason. I still don't think the Blue Jays are good enough to win the East, but Stewart's new job gives them a better chance than they had.
VoodooChild: Are the Indians going to pull the plug and get something for Manny Ramirez?
Rob Neyer: The Indians are only three games off the Wild Card pace, and they're so used to playing in October that I can't quite see them giving up yet. I believe that Ramirez will finish the season in Cleveland.
Redsteel: Simply put ... why does Dan Duquette treat players the way he does? The way he treated Mike Stanley was criminal.
Rob Neyer: It's funny, nobody complained much when Duquette gave Jeff Frye a multi-year contract. Duquette, like most of us, does a fair number of silly things. But it's nothing personal, he just does what he thinks will help the team. Usually he's right, sometimes he's wrong.
Giants Fan: Do you think it's ironic that Brian Sabean who was quoted as saying something like sabermetrics gives him a headache has the team with the highest OPS in the majors?
Rob Neyer: I'm not exactly sure if that qualifies as irony, but it's certainly amusing. Yes, the Giants win because they've got a bunch of great hitters in the middle of the order. And that's what sabermetrics is all about. Now, if Dusty Baker didn't abuse his young pitchers year after year, the Giants might really be good.
Kabir Chahal: Will Billy Beane make a trade? Or will the A's stand pat?
Rob Neyer: Beane's an active general manager, but the A's have a deep (though young) rotation and a solid lineup. So I'm not expecting any big deals there, maybe something around the margins for an extra bat or a middle reliever.
Gurn: This Phillies organization is doing its best to kill baseball in Philadelphia. We used to be a great baseball city. Do they really expect anything but last place with this Triple-A rotation they have now? And what in the world do they want in Travis Lee, who hasn't hit a thing in two years and plays a position that is of no need for this team?
Rob Neyer: I think your concerns about Lee are justified. He's now piled up 1,161 at-bats in the major leagues, and has posted a poor .401 slugging percentage. I do think Lee will enjoy some decent seasons, but it's unrealistic to think he'll ever be a star.
But I do like the Phillies' young rotation, assuming they can stay healthy.
Kevin D: Can any team beat Arizona in the playoffs? Each team will go in facing two of the top starters in the league. At best, it will be a 1-1 split!!!
Rob Neyer: Well, Atlanta can throw some pretty good arms out there, too. Should get real interesting if those two clubs face off in October.
Sam Miles: OPS isn't a fair stat. It favors sluggers heavily. Why do you use it?
Rob Neyer: Why do you ask such a silly question? I "use" OPS because it "works." If you have two hitters with, for example, the same batting average, the hitter with the higher OPS will almost invariably be the more productive of the two.
Y2JF: Do you think the Angels will make a move in order to improve their chances of making the playoffs?
Rob Neyer: Yes, I do ... but their moves will be made in order to improve their chances of making the playoffs in 2001, not this season. Bill Stoneman is, I think, smart enough to know that he's got an over-achieving club, and there's no reason to sell the farm for a pennant effort that will likely prove fruitless.
Tigers Fan: If the Yankees do trade Soriano away, do they have any prospects left? Or are they two years away from being the Orioles?
Rob Neyer: The cupboard ain't bare yet. In addition to Soriano, the Yankees still have Grade A prospects D'Angelo Jimenez and Nick Johnson, though neither of those two have played this year. It's tempting to think of the Yankees as the next Orioles, but we're like to see more Cuban defectors, and you know the Yanks will be first in line for those guys, checkbooks in hand.
BalboniBacker: Regarding your All-Awful team, isnt it interesting how many Yankees and Braves rank high on these lists? You would think it would be Houston, KC and the likes dominating. Any thoughts on that dichotomy?
Rob Neyer: It is interesting, and probably something of a fluke. It's also possible that if those guys played for other, lesser teams, they'd be losing playing time to younger players. But Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez are Yankees, so they're going to be in there every day.
Sayreville Luke: Are the Mariners going to take a chance and keep Alex Rodriguez and see if they can sign him at the end of the year or are they looking to trade him before the deadline?
Rob Neyer: The Mariners are in first place! There's no way in hell they trade Rodriguez in the next few days, and that means there's no way in hell they trade him before the World Series.
Fireman D: Do you think the Rangers will deal John Wetteland to a contender? The Braves or Cards perhaps?
Rob Neyer: My sources suggest that the Rangers would like to hang on to Wetteland, but he and Luis Alicea might be a good fit in Atlanta.
Redbird: Since St. Louis has just about everyone signed for the next few years, do you think they will be the team to beat of this decade similar to the Braves of the last decade?
Rob Neyer: Nah, I don't think so. Mark McGwire and Jim Edmonds are always injury risks, Ray Lankford is old, Fernando Vina is making more money than he should, and the rotation is loaded with veterans. I love J.D. Drew and Fernando Tatis, but two young stars do not a dynasty make. They've got a chance to be competitive for at least a few years, but after that anything could happen.
Thanks for all the great questions, I'll see you next week.
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Rob Neyer chat archive
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