| | The New York Yankees pulled off a big trade on Wednesday with the Cincinnati Reds to land pitcher Denny Neagle. But did they give up too much and pilfer their farm system?
ESPN.com's minor league analyst John Sickels told users in chat at first glance it looks like the Yankees were taken. But a closer look reveals New York managed to get the starting pitcher they needed and kept their very best prospects. Sickels also talked about several teams' prospects including the Mariners, Cubs and Twins.
Check out this edited transcript from Sickels July 12 chat.
|  | | Ed Yarnall is now with the Cincinnati Reds. |
K.G.: Do you think the Yanks gave up too much for Denny Neagle? Jackson Melian's numbers are poor this year,
who knows which sport Drew Henson will pick, Brian Reith is 22 and repeating the FSL, and Ed Yarnall has
bombed in the big leagues this year. Looks like a big risk/reward proposition for the Reds?
John Sickels:
My initial reaction was that the Yankees gave up too much. But let's look at each player
involved. Melian has those great physical tools and he works hard, but he's never put up more
than adequate numbers. On the other hand, he's just 20. Henson will probably become an
excellent player if he gives up football. My guess is that he will eventually pick baseball, but not
right away, which means he could always have his leg broken by a linebacker or something. I
like Reith as a sleeper prospect, though he does have to prove himself in Double-A. I've always
liked Yarnall, but he hasn't pitched well this year due to a back injury.
This could go either way,
really. All of these guys have something in their record that makes you worry, but all of them
have the ability to turn into something interesting, too. It does represent a reduction of farm
system depth for the Yankees, which could come back to haunt them. And it does put an
infusion of talent into the Reds system. Like most of these types of trades, we can't really
evaluate it until we see how the prospects develop. Short-run, it helps the Yanks of course.
Long-run, the Reds could win.
Sandie: Bruce Chen to the Phillies? Don't you think that the Braves gave up on him a little too soon?
John Sickels:
Oh, yes, definitely. A clear case of liking the "proven veteran" over the youngster with more
potential but some uncertainty. I think the Braves panicked a little early on this one.
Alka Meltzer: What do you think of Kevin Mench as a prospect for the Rangers? I have seen him play a few
times in the Florida State League and all he does is hit line drives.
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SICKELS' FILE
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Sickels worked as Bill James' research assistant from 1993 to 1996. He's authored five editions of the STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. In addition, Sickels provides minor-league profiles for ESPN.com. Sickels received his BA in European history and philosophy from Northwest Missouri State University in 1990, and his MA in modern European history from the University of Kansas in 1993. John lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife Jeri, his son Nicholas, and their two cats. He spends his days talking care of Nicholas and his nights being a baseball fan.
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John Sickels: He's a hitter for sure, but whether he is going to be a star or just pretty good remains to be
seen. We need to see what he can do in Double-A. But so far he shows power, batting
average, and strike zone judgment. I see no reason to think he'll struggle as he moves up.
Should be a solid corner outfielder.
Matt Fisher: The Yanks still have Nick Johnson, Alfonzo Soriano, and Jimenez. Do you think that they kept
their best prospects?
John Sickels:
Well, I love Johnson and Jimenez, and would rate them higher than any of the guys the Yankees
traded to the Reds. But we need to make sure they are healthy. Johnson's wrist is still hurting,
and of course Jimenez will have to prove his back is OK. Soriano I'm less wild about but he's a
good prospect. If Johnson and Jimenez heal, then the Yanks still have their best two prospects,
yes.
Ron: Do you think Corey Patterson will be called up soon and if so, how do you think he will fare?
John Sickels:
Well, supposedly Cubs manager Don Baylor wants to call him up now. I think that's premature. Patterson has
shown mediocre-to-poor strike zone judgment in Double-A, and if I were the Cubs front office,
I'd tell Baylor to shut up about bringing him up. I don't think he's ready.
Chaz: Are you troubled by the strike zone judgement of Corey Patterson? You preach BB/SO ratios
but seem to ignore them when reviewing Patterson.
John Sickels:
Yes, his problems with the K/BB this year bothers me. His walk rate was a problem last year,
but his strikeouts weren't excessive, he did so well, and he was so young that I rated him as the
best prospect anyhow. Unless he gets really hot soon I won't be able to do that this year of
course. Given his youth, I still think he's going to be a star. But he does have work to do.
Bluechipper: I've never seen Bobby Kielty play, but his numbers this year are very impressive. What can you
tell me about him? Is he a legit center fielder defensively?
John Sickels:
His defense is supposedly fine, but I haven't seen him in person so I can't confirm that with a
personal report. He can hit for sure, though, and the Twins have both Lawton and Jones who
can play CF. Kielty has patience and power, and the Twins need both of those.
Max: What's your updated analysis of Ryan Anderson? He has had some rough outings that seem to
me to be part of the process of learning to cope at the Triple-A level at his young age. Not this
year, but say next year and in 2002, do you think we will see Ryan as a dominant big league
strikeout pitcher?
John Sickels:
If he doesn't get hurt, he's going to be a terrific pitcher. Maybe not as good as Randy Johnson
(that would be very hard) but above-average with a lot of Ks. He's still getting his mechanics
refined, but he's matured a great deal as a pitcher and even more as a person in the last two
years. I expect we'll see him in September, sooner perhaps if he gets hot suddenly.
Ian: The Mariners have a brilliant team of young hitters down in Class-A Lancaster: 2B -- Willie
Bloomquist who is hitting .375/450/.522, OF -- Terrmel Sledge at .324/.443/.481 with 31 stolen
bases, 3B -- Bo Robinson at .324/.398/.453 with eight homers, and biggest surprise of all, OF --
Juan Silvestre at .340/.423./.607, 22 homers, and an amazing 100 RBI. Also, OF- Chris
Snelling in Class-A Wisconsin is hitting .342/.416/.559. Which of these five players do you think
has the best chance to become an impact player in the majors?
John Sickels:
Well, you have to be careful about those California League stats. Lancaster is a great place to
hit. I think Bloomquist probably has the best chance to help in the majors of those Lancaster
guys, although I also like Sledge a lot, and you have to respect what Silvestre has done this
year. Robinson can hit some, but will probably get stuck in the high minors. Actually, I like
Snelling at Wisconsin the best of the entire group you mentioned. He could be a potential
batting champion someday. Keep an eye on him.
Chakraji: Where do you rate Bobby Bradley among minor league pitching prospects? Why wasn't he
invited to the Futures Game?
John Sickels:
Bradley didn't pitch in the futures game because he is out with an elbow injury. He's supposed
to come back by Aug. 1 and surgery isn't required or anything, but I get paranoid about sore
elbows. He's a tremendous pitching prospect if healthy, possibly the most advanced young
pitcher in the low minors.
Rotomanic: I have heard that Brad Wilkerson is making a big impression and may be moving ahead of M.
Bradley. Is he that good?
John Sickels:
Bradley has better tools but Wilkerson is much more refined. I'd take Wilkerson if forced into a
choice because I like his strike zone judgment, but Bradley is no slouch as a prospect either.
Both should develop into good players, possibly stars.
Mr: What about Josh Beckett? Do you think the Marlins will call him up in September for a quick
look?
John Sickels:
I doubt it. He's only in A-ball. They'll have to promote him quickly anyhow because of his
contract, but I'd hate to see them jump the gun even more than they will be forced to later on.
Eclectics: What about Vernon Wells, was he overhyped? Any chance he'll make it up this year?
John Sickels:
Well, I'd say he was more rushed than overhyped. I still rate him very highly. He basically
jumped from A-ball to Triple-A. My guess is that he'll do a bit better as the season progresses,
but will come out of the gate very strong in 2001.
John: Do you think the Tommy John surgery to John Patterson will negatively affect him?
John Sickels:
Physically, he should get all of or most of his stuff back. These surgeries are becoming almost
routine and most guys come back throwing as hard as they did before, if not harder. The key
challenge will be the mental adjustment, regaining confidence in yourself, your arm, your body.
Patterson could recover just fine...or he could turn into the new Jim Pittsley. At this point we
just don't know.
Mr: Thanks for answering. I did read in one of the Florida papers where Drombowski said they may
let Beckett start a September game because he's already on the 40 man roster.
John Sickels:
Well, I suppose it could happen then. If I were the Marlins GM, it wouldn't happen on my
watch. But I'm just a writer...
KVinc: What do you think of Kip Wells and will being sent down affect him negatively?
John Sickels:
I'm going to watch this closely. Wells is a good example of the importance of K/BB ratio in
evaluating pitchers. He had a strong 1999 season, but his K/BB ratio got worse the further he
rose in the system, and I was concerned he was being rushed. I figured his control and
command might be a problem, though I must admit I was surprised by exactly how badly he
actually struggled. At this point, I still think he's a tremendous long-term prospect, but we need
to see how he rebuilds his control and confidence. If he stays healthy, he should be fine in the
long run.
Rob: Do you think Todd Walker can re-gain his old form if he is traded away from the Twins and
given a chance to play everyday?
John Sickels:
Yes. But I'm both a Twins fan and a Walker partisan, so I'm not exactly objective about the
way he was handled.
Nate: What do you think of the Royal's pitching prospect Shawn Sonnier who is currently with Double-A
Witchita?
John Sickels:
I've seen him twice this year. Throws 90-93 MPH with a hard slider. Looks like a middle
reliever at least, and might sneak in some innings with the Royals later this year.
Steve: Also, what about Nick the big kid who is a pitcher in the Milwaukee organization? Is he ready
for the big leagues?
John Sickels:
You mean Nick Neugebauer I assume. He's got a 98 MPH fastball that no one can touch. But
he can't hit the broad side of a whale with it. He's nowhere near ready for the majors, but is one
of the most intriguing prospects around. Think Rob Dibble with worse control.
MTG: Could you rate a player just by his statistics, or is seeing someone play in person an integral
part of the process? Defense would obviously be hard to judge by the numbers.
John Sickels:
Ideally, you need to do both. But for hitters, it's usually possible to get a good idea about how
good a player is if you 1. know what his numbers mean within park/league context and 2. know
his birthday. Defense is VERY hard, if not impossible, to judge by numbers as you point out.
For pitchers, the numbers are useful of course, especially K/BB, K/IP, and H/IP, but you need
to know what the guy throws, his age, his level of intellect, mechanics, etc. Some of that stuff
you can't really tell about unless you see them in person.
Greenmachine: What do you think of the comparison of Ramon Ortiz with the Angels and Pedro Martinez?
John Sickels:
Given their physical similarities and heritage, it's an obvious comparison to make and I've made
it myself. Of course, I very much doubt that Ortiz will be as good as Pedro, since Pedro might
be the best pitcher in history right now, and has far more polish and control than Ortiz ever will.
But will Ortiz be a good pitcher? If he stays healthy, yes.
MsMoose: At the Class-A level, how do you differ who is a good prospect and who is probably a Triple-A player?
Especially when guys put up nearly identical numbers.
John Sickels:
Age relative to league is the best measure. Scouts will also look at athleticism and projectability,
but those things are hard to quantify.
Well, I have to go now. Every one have a good night.
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