| | Before you chastise ESPN.com baseball writer Rob Neyer for his season-ending predictions, which are currently far from accurate, remember the season is just getting started and not yet a month old, says Neyer.
Neyer told ESPN.com users during his weekly chat that although his Blue Jays and Astros picks are way off, he did remind fans that he picked the Reds and Dodgers to flounder. Neyer also talked about the DH and juiced-ball controversies and offered his opinion on the Elian situation and its impact on baseball.
If you missed Neyer's April 26 chat, an edited transcript follows. Check it out and see how Neyer would build his own personal stadium.
|  | | The Blue Jays slow start makes Neyer's predictions look silly. |
Doug Dennis: Why so many more free passes being given out this season? Isn't this every bit as much the
culprit for the high scores as the home runs (and far more boring)?
Rob Neyer:
I've not checked the walk rates this year, but assuming that they really are higher, it strikes me
as fairly likely that pitchers would rather work carefully than risk giving up more home runs. I
don't know if this is what they should be doing, but I think it's what they are doing.
Steve Sousa: Are you regretting that Toronto prediction yet?
Rob Neyer:
For anyone who doesn't know, I predicted that the Blue Jays would win the American League
wild card, and eventually reach the World Series. And yes, I am regretting it, because I placed
my faith in young pitching even though I know that's not smart.
That said, it's still early despite what your favorite TV analyst might tell you. I could be
regretting my Toronto and Houston predictions, and I could also be rejoicing over my
Cincinnati and Los Angeles predictions ... but I think I'll do the smart thing, and wait a few
months.
Tony Arrigo: I was just wondering why everyone is worried about the home run situation? People always
complained about how boring baseball was, now that it's exciting they still complain.
Rob Neyer:
Really? Who, exactly was complaining about how boring baseball was? Certainly nobody I
knew. The fact is that attendance has not been up appreciably in the last few years, and that
was true even in 1998 when Big Mac and Sammy were doing their thing. While it's true that
fans like offense, I think that once you reach a certain threshold it doesn't matter how much
more you score. And we reached that threshold some years ago.
Mmgv: What will the A's do with both Eric Chavez and Adam Piatt up at the same time, and do you see them
having to eventually dump one of them?
Rob Neyer:
With John Jaha on the DL, Piatt can DH, which is good for the A's because he bats righty and the
rest of the lineup is stacked with lefties. I certainly don't think the A's will dump one of them, it's
far more likely that they'll divest themselves of veterans like Jaha and Matt Stairs.
Derek: All reports indicate that Mark Wohlers is pitching in the mid-90s with control. Do you think it's
possible that the injury was the cause for lack of control all along (instead of "Steve Blass"
disease)?
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NEYER'S FILE
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ESPN.com's Rob Neyer writes a daily baseball column from March through October. His book "Baseball Dynasties," co-authored with Eddie Epstein, has just been published, and can be ordered from Amazon.com. |
Rob Neyer:
Sure, it's possible. Anything is possible. But haven't we heard this about Wohlers before?
Before I go stock up on his rookie cards, I'd like to see him pitch to some actual major league
hitters.
Bill Silvers: Aside from the becoming ridiculous "home run" explosion, what do think the chances are that
umpires might start calling a rule-book strike zone? Seems to me that'd solve a lot of the
problems created by the juiced ball.
Rob Neyer:
Good point, Bill. It's quite possible that consolidating the umpires under the control of the
Commissioner's office was just the first step, and the second will be rigorous enforcement of the
strike zone. I expect that we'll see something along these lines, but not until next year.
Bosox Fan: Regarding your column from (Wednesday), I'm sure you've heard Harold Reynolds' theory that the big
MLB logo on the new balls allows the hitters to pick up the ball better, or at least figure out
what kind of spin is on it. What's your take on this?
Rob Neyer:
I'm certainly not going to say that Harold's not right. Baseball is a game of visual acuity, and
anything that affects that could be a factor. But you always wish someone would bother to
conduct a scientific study of something like this. It wouldn't be difficult, but I suppose MLB
can't be bothered when there are trips to Japan that need planning.
Rick Stockton: It is early but it appears that Astros management's moves in the offseason have made the
team much weaker. The signing of a fly-ball pitcher such as Jose Lima and the trading of Mike Hampton
shows that they underestimated the impact of Enron Field. The current pitching staff is still
tailored for the Astrodome. Can they compete with their current pitching staff?
Rob Neyer:
You know, I get a lot of e-mail that starts out, "I know it's early, but ... " My advice to those of
you who write those messages is, if you know that it's early, then don't bother with the rest!
But getting to this particular message, I'm not sure how tailored for the Astrodome this staff is.
Lima, certainly, is a fly-ball pitcher, and he's been taking his lumps. Before we waive him out of
the league, though, let's see if he's capable of making adjustments. Shane Reynolds has pitched well,
and Scott Elarton is just now coming off the DL. I don't like the Astros as much as I did a month ago,
but they could still be a factor in things.
Annette: How much real opposition to removing the DH do you think exists in the players union? Is
there any realistic chance of removing the DH in the near future?
Rob Neyer:
FYI, it's the Players Association. There certainly is real opposition to abolishing the DH, but
when the current labor agreement expires after the 2001 season, it will just be another thing to
negotiate. If the players get most everything else they want, they might give up the DH.
Tony Arrigo: Do you think it was right for all those players to leave the game in support of the Elian situation?
Rob Neyer:
I don't want to get into the politics of this, though of course I do have a strong opinion. Purely
from a baseball perspective, I can tell you that if I were a Marlins fan, I would be incredibly
angry at the players who sat out that game (especially the non-Cubans), and also management
for allowing it to happen. Ditto if I were a Devil Rays fan, because they lost a one-run game
with Jose Canseco out of the lineup.
Ryan Weinzierl: With the Royals getting off to a hot start, everybody was jumping on their bandwagon. Now
that they have fallen off, is it time for a Twins bandwagon?
Rob Neyer:
Damn straight! I just ordered a replica Christian Guzman jersey from the ESPN Store, and by
the time it arrives I'll bet the Twins have clinched at least the Wild Card!
Brain: Who is the best shortstop since WWII, not including the current trinity? Where would you rank Barry
Larkin?
Rob Neyer:
Cal Ripken's No. 1, and I feel pretty confident about that. I suppose my No. 2 would be Ernie
Banks, with Ozzie and Larkin battling for the No. 3 spot but not far behind Banks. And Buddy
Biancalana is No. 5.
Jeffrey: What do you think are DH Mark Quinn's chances of winning Rookie of the Year?
Rob Neyer:
I think that before the season I picked at least two different players for AL Rookie of the
Year, but I know that Quinn was one of them. He's exactly what you look for, a good hitter
with an everyday job, in close to the prime of his career.
Todd Heinz: Are things getting a little crazy? Warren Morris singles in extra innings of the Padres-Pirates game and ESPN calls this a walk-off single. When is the madness going to end? Soon a
walk-off hit by pitch? What is your opinion on this.
Rob Neyer: As I said in my column recently, I prefer that "walk-off" be reserved for home runs. But right
now, the policy at ESPN is to use it for any game-ending hit. If you don't like it, contact the TV
guys, and stop sending me e-mail about it (you know who you are).
Jeff: Any truth to the rumor that the mounds may be lowered in the near future?
Rob Neyer:
My sources tell me that Commissioner Bud recently was sitting in his office, just thinking, and he
realized that if the pitcher's mound was actually sunk beneath the level of the field, their pitches
would be traveling up toward the hitters, and this would result in lots and lots of ground balls.
Unfortunately, the Groundskeepers Association threatened to strike, so this will only be a
possibility in the ballparks that still have artificial turf.
Chris: What are your thoughts on Carlos Beltran? He hasn't really been too impressive thus far? Is it
just a slump, or is something fundamentally wrong?
Rob Neyer:
Yes, something is fundamentally wrong ... he's not very good. What everybody missed last
year is that his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) were right at the American
League average. He was not a great player, perhaps not even a good one (relative to his
peers). I do think that Beltran will develop into a good player, but there'll be some bumps in the
road. And this is one of them.
I Spelt It Write: What do you think Tony Gwynn would have accomplished if he laid off the seconds and thirds?
And how would you rate his career, glorified singles artist or exceptional hitting machine?
Rob Neyer:
Answering your second question first, I think the correct answer is C) Both.
Answering your first question, if Gwynn had taken better care of himself and retained the skills
that he has, he would almost unquestionably have been even more productive than he was. But
people are complex creatures, and who's to say that the eating and the batting aren't somehow
inextricably linked? Would Ty Cobb have been a great player if he'd also been a nice guy?
Would Babe Ruth have been a great player if he'd been like the rest of us?
NeyerFan: What are the Yankees going to do to liven up their lineup? The pitchers will eventually come
around, but the lineup lacks the punch it has the last few years. Chuck Knoblauch has never been the
player he was in Minnesota and Shane Spencer is not an everyday DH.
Rob Neyer:
The Yankees, it might be argued, are suffering a bit from their arrogance. They have focused so
much on getting (and keeping) their "character guys" that the lineup is indeed a bit creaky. I still
think they can win, but I do not think they're a threat to win 100 games this year. And you're
right about Spencer; as I argued before the season started, he should only be playing against
left-handed pitchers.
Scott Bessler: Since ESPN.com doesn't give us OPS stats readily available, where might we find them?
Rob Neyer:
I don't think that's true. While we are somewhat limited by the people who sell us our stats, you
can find OPS in each team's stats, and also within our sortable player stats. I would venture a
guess that we've got more OPS on this site than any of the other big boys.
Sheldo: What do you have to say to those who look down on sabermetrics?
Rob Neyer:
I would say, "Do you play professional basketball?"
There are a lot of tall sabermetricians.
Dan Schrengost: What are your thoughts on J.D. Drew? Do you think he will get a chance to play every day this
season? He's certainly been impressive when he has played.
Rob Neyer:
If he can stay healthy, he'll play plenty. Even if La Russa's the manager, that kind of talent
eventually wins out.
MikeM: Trot Nixon, Jorge Posada, Scott Schoeneweis, Hideo Nomo, and Pokey
Reese are all off to amazing starts, but none of them performed well in '99. Who's for real?
Rob Neyer:
I like Nixon a lot. He was good in the second half of 1999, and he had corrective surgery on
his eyes over the winter. Posada's the real deal, too. I think that he, and not Jason Varitek, is the
second-best catcher in the league.
Nelson Lu: Have you gotten a copy of the Big Bad Baseball Annual 2000, and if so, what is your feeling
about it? (I am a contributor, and I am pondering the extent of my involvement next year.)
Rob Neyer:
Just received it today, so I haven't had a chance to read much of anything. I've heard that
there's some negative stuff about me in there, which I mention here only because it might help
sales.
Brian Monroe: Considering all your talk about homers lately: If you could build your own new ballpark, what
would the dimensions be? (Including the heights of the walls and other idiosyncrasies?)
Rob Neyer:
Hey, here's a question that nobody's ever asked before ... OK, I would make it 330 down the
lines, 380 in the power alleys, and about 400 to center field. The fences would be eight feet
high to allow circus catches. And I would include idiosyncrasies only if they were a natural
result of the surrounding streets, etc. That is, no artificial "character." Oh, and no ads on the
outfield walls.
RseasonsOVER: Home runs I can deal with, they're part of the game. It's the morons with cell phones
waving to the camera that annoy me. Your thoughts?
Rob Neyer:
Those morons should be warned once. If they persist, they should be pummeled about the face
and neck by security personnel from the Fenway bleachers. I am completely serious about this.
That's it for today, I'll be back next week for more of this stuff. Peace. | |
ALSO SEE
Rob Neyer chat archive
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