"Jay Buhner represents an exception to the rule," says Neyer. If you're worried about a guy's health and he comes out hitting in spring training, you have to move him up a few notches."

In his weekly chat with ESPN.com users, Neyer touches on the Royals' situation, Bobby Bonilla as a Brave, and he also settles the age-old debate of who is smarter: Neyer or Peter Gammons.

In case you missed Neyer's March 16 chat, the following is an edited transcript.

Smelt Knight: Which young hitter do you believe will have a better 2000, Eric Chavez or Erubiel Durazo? What kind of numbers might we expect?

Rob Neyer: Long-term, it's a toss-up. Right now, in 2000, Durazo is the more advanced hitter. I see him posting a .400 on-base percentage, and a .500-plus slugging percentage. Very impressive.

Jeremiah: What is up with Travis Lee? Is he completely in Buck Showalter's doghouse or what? The guy can flat-out hit if given the chance. Is he going to get traded to someone like Montreal who could use him behind Guerrero or is he going to be wasted in a platoon with Benard Gilkey and David Deluccia?

Neyer: Lee certainly is a talented hitter, but the hard, cold fact is that he's had 937 at-bats to prove it, and to this point he's been worse than mediocre. I do think he deserves at least one more chance, but he might be better off in another organization.

CRSteve: Any idea on the situation with Robert Fick? He's been hitting really well this spring, but are the Tigers going to use Polonia as their DH?

Neyer: Looks to me like Fick will do some catching and some DHing, and if he doesn't get at least 400 at-bats, whoever's running things should be taken out back and flogged.

Rick: What do you think of the spring that Trot Nixon is having and do you think he would be a good fit for the number 2 hole in the batting order?

Neyer: I've become a Trot Nixon convert. He played well in the second half last year and had laser surgery on his eyes this winter. As for where he should hit, frankly it really doesn't matter. He's a better fit than Valentin, though.

Gavin: Rob, Is John Halama going to be traded?

Neyer: My sources tell me that Halama will open the season in the rotation, with Tomko sent down to Tacoma. However, the Mariners still desperately need a power-hitting outfielder, and Halama might well be included in any deal.

dulinor: Which player has been the biggest surprise so far in spring training? (Discounting the Strawberrys and the Smoltzes of the world)

Neyer: To tell you the truth, I don't pay much attention to such things, because for the most part, spring stats are meaningless. However, Jon Nunnally's been killing the ball, and deserves a job as the Mets' fourth or fifth outfielder. (Actually, he probably deserves to play ahead of Derek Bell, but that's not going to happen.)

Smelt Knight: They keep talking about Chen becoming the Braves fifth starter. Shouldn't they put him ahead of Mulholland?

Neyer: Chen as the No. 5 guy makes sense to me. He's young, his arm is still vulnerable, and skipping a start every few weeks will only aid his development.

Kevin: Do you think the Rangers can accomplish the task of building for the future while at the same time competing for a playoff spot? And also, who do you think will win the battle between Lamb/Evans?

Neyer: If they were in another division, I'd say the Rangers were cooked this year. But 92 victories might be enough to win the West this year, and if things break right for the Rangers, they could get there. I do think their future looks bright, especially if they can develop a solid starter or two.

	NEYER'S FILE
	Rob Neyer worked with Bill James and STATS, Inc. before joining ESPN.com where he writes a weekly baseball column. His book "Baseball Dynasties," co-authored with Eddie Epstein, will be published this spring, and he regularly writes about the Kansas City Royals at his personal web site.

Brian: What's up on the hot corner in Texas? I know Evans is beating Lamb (or he's beating himself), but are they likely to leave Lamb down for a good long time, or call him up as soon as Evans falters?

Neyer: Sorry, meant to address this in previous post. Lamb is the better player, but Evans would be decent, too. Johnny Oates, like most managers, puts too much stock in March statistics.

Glennh: Who gets helped the most in the deal that just sent Fullmer to the Blue Jays, Segui to the Rangers and Stevens to the Expos?

Neyer: I've not been able to confirm this, but I'll assume it's true ... and if it's true, it's gotta rank as one of the all-time weirdest trades. Three teams, three first basemen?

First, I wonder if this means Rafael Palmeiro won't get a chance to defend his Gold Glove (heh heh). Overall, this looks like essentially a wash to me, but Segui probably has the most value among the three, barely.

Bill Mabe: Why did the Braves pick up Bobby Bonilla? His card playing acumen aside, can Bonilla do anything on the diamond to help the Braves win?

Neyer: If Bonilla is healthy and (relatively) skinny, he can still help a club in a limited role, especially a contender like the Braves. Seems like a good fit to me.

LuvLarry99: Do you think that now the Royals have an owner, that there will be an inclination to progress the franchise? Or will it still just wallow in that small market limbo? With good leadership, they should by all rights be at least a wild-card contender, don't you think?

Neyer: The Royals are still about $15 million and two seasons away from being legitimate contenders. But if they wise up and get rid of Tony Muser, they should be in the hunt in 2002.

Jeff P: Curious how you think Tampa Bay will fare this year? They have quite a few sticks but it seems a lot of those guys are getting up there in age. How strong can they expect Guzman and the rest of the staff to be?

Neyer: The Devil Rays are older than Henny Youngman's jokes. Plus, while the new guys have power, there's still very little on-base ability in the lineup, so I suspect we'll see lots of solo homers. The team will improve by default, but I'll be surprised if they crack the .500 mark.

Sherif: What do you think of Jim Leyritz?

Neyer: Pretty good platoon player and gives you some options defensively, but doesn't hit righties well enough to play every day.

Randy: Do you think going into Florida was a good idea for the MLB? The Marlins "bought" a World Series and attendance wasn't great. The Devil Rays keep losing people.

Neyer: It's pretty interesting. Three of this country's top 22 media markets are in Florida -- Tampa's No. 15, Miami's No. 16, and Orlando-Daytona Beach is No. 22 -- but you're right, the Florida teams have not drawn particularly well. I think the problems are a combination of (mostly) poor teams, unappealing ballparks, and lack of major league tradition. It might also have something to do with demographics, but I'm not smart enough to say much about that.

illinisf: How good can the Giants be this year given a new park and capacity crowds every night. In particular, is their pitching staff good enough to win the division, assuming the Diamondbacks are due for some decline from last year?

Neyer: The ballpark will probably help, with all those fans lending their support. The pitching, on the other hand, could be a big problem, given the workloads suffered by both Russ Ortiz and Livan Hernandez last year. That said, I rate the Giants as co-favorites in the West, along with both the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Eighty-seven wins might be enough.

Dave Nardone: When and where can I get a copy of the book you have recently co-written?

Neyer: Two easy ways. One, you can order from one of those web sites that sells books. Two, just check any decent-sized bookstore, which should be stocking Baseball Dynasties within the next week or so. Thanks for asking.

Giles Domain: Who is winning the Expos CF battle: Bergeron or Bradley?

Neyer: Not much has apparently changed since the start of spring training, when Bergeron was rated the better candidate. He's slightly more advanced as a hitter, and hasn't demonstrated the nasty temper that Bradley has.

JOE: Who's smarter, you or Peter Gammons?

Neyer: Peter's a lot smarter than me. He embarrasses me every time we play Scrabble.

NUmike: Based on your article from the other day and just from seeing their empty park, do you expect the A's to be moving anytime in the next couple of years? It's a shame to see a team that works so hard and plays well, play in front of no one.

Neyer: Given how slow baseball does anything and everything, it's almost inconceivable that they'd move in the next couple of years. However, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they left for Sacramento sometime in the next five years.

Dan: What's your take on Tampa Bay retiring Wade Bogg's jersey?

Neyer: For the most part, I couldn't care less about which numbers are retired by the teams. However, if I were a Devil Rays fan, I would be furious. Boggs spent a whopping two seasons there, and he wasn't even that good. This is a sign of an organization that really doesn't know what it's doing.

dave p: Ledee's been mashing the ball this spring. Will this be the year that he gets to start, play, and not get jerked around after he makes a wild throw home?

Neyer: I'm no longer sold on Ledee's ability as an everyday player. But the Yankees could do a lot worse than platooning Ledee and Shane Spencer in left field.

EJ: Do you think Quilvio Veras will have a good year as the leadoff hitter in Atlanta?

Neyer: Veras is perpetually gimpy, has never played more than 145 games in a season. But given his career .371 OBP, he could score 120 runs if healthy all season.

Sir Douglass: What are the best and worst things about being a sportswriter?

Neyer: Worst thing: Can't take much vacation in the summer. Best things: Everything else.

moz57: Okay, now I know that you don't think much about spring stats, but this particular player has been showing some definite skills again: Jay Buhner. One question, do you think that we Mariner fans should expect the strong armed, power hitting days of old or the more injury-prone, gimpy version of Buhner?

Neyer: Buhner represents an exception to the rule. If you're worried about a guy's health and he comes out hitting in spring training, you have to move him up a few notches. That said, players who get hurt usually get hurt again, so let's not get too excited about Buhner.