| | Realignment may be a big deal to some people, but ESPN.com baseball columnist Rob Neyer says it doesn't mean a whole lot when it comes to on-field play.
In his latest chat with ESPN.com users, Neyer talked about the minor adjustments a manager has to make with his team if they were to switch leagues. He also talked about the outfield dilemmas with the Mets and Mariners and revealed his projections for several players coming off miserable seasons.
Check out this edited transcript from Neyer's March 10 chat and find out his favorite player and favorite baseball card.
|  | | Neyer says Jim Leyland shouldn't prepare a speech for Cooperstown. |
Tony: What do you think about Jon Nunnally? He's been pretty impressive this spring, don't you think? I
say trade Rickey and play Nunnally!
Rob Neyer: Here's something most people don't know: In 811 major league at-bats, Jon Nunnally's career
slugging percentage is .478, and his on-base percentage is .356. Both of those figures are
significantly better than Derek Bell's career marks, and if I were running the Mets, I'd make sure
that Nunnally got a real chance to play this spring.
Mr. met: Do you take anything out of the decent hitting Rey Ordo&ntild;ez has been doing in spring training, mainly
the power he's shown? Is it a fluke, or has he added some stamina that will make him a more
effective hitter?
Rob Neyer:
Continuing the Mets theme ... You should never take spring training too seriously, but we know
that Bobby Valentine has asked Ordoņez to hit with more authority this year. And if he's put on
some muscle ... well, anything's possible. But the pitchers will make adjustments, too. If Rey's got
seven or eight homers by the All-Star Game, we can talk.
JeffS: Is anyone trying to get MLB to use restricted flight baseballs with raised seams in Colorado, like
you suggested some time ago?
Rob Neyer:
I've not heard anyone (except me) suggest this as a serious possibility. On a happier note, there
seems to be some sentiment toward addressing the issue of hitters coming to the plate in full suits
of body armor (that's another crusade of mine).
Casey Kupper: You seem to think highly of the Rangers' Mike Lamb and Ruben Mateo. With Gabe Kapler taking over right field for
the start of the post Gonzo era, and a drastically improved rotation, continued dominance of the
West seems imminent. But can they seriously challenge for the pennant?
Rob Neyer:
A drastically improved rotation? Seems like a strange thing to say, given that they lost Aaron Sele.
I rate the Rangers co-favorites in the West, along with Oakland. And if the Mariners pick up a
real outfielder, they join the party, too.
Heyman: Why are the Yankees still the consensus choice to win it all? The only positions where they're
solid is up the middle at 2B, SS and CF, and they are one starting pitcher injury away from second
place behind the Sox? What am I missing here?
Rob Neyer:
Hmmm, maybe it's because they easily won the last two World Series, and are returning virtually
every key player from a year ago.
Gibby: Why didn't Vernon Wells make your list of ROY candidates? Don't
you think he will beat
out <Jose Cruz for the CF job in Toronto?
Rob Neyer:
First off, Jose Cruz is better than people think and he deserves the job. And second, even if Wells
does play regularly, he's not quite ready to play at a high level in the majors.
Marco from Seattle: Do you think that the success of the Red Sox this year really depends on the performance of
Ramon Martinez?
Rob Neyer:
Sure, to a point. With Bret Saberhagen likely out until June, the Sox probably do need Ramon to pitch
well if they're going to contend. But a lot of other things could go wrong for this club, too. If
anything happens to Pedro or Nomar, they're sunk.
Will Renner: Who do you think will start in the Expos center field, Bradley or Peter Bergeron? Is there a good chance that
Rondell White will be traded, opening up spots for both?
|
NEYER'S FILE
|
|
Rob Neyer worked with Bill James and STATS, Inc. before joining ESPN.com where he writes a weekly baseball column.
His book "Baseball Dynasties," co-authored with Eddie Epstein, will be published this spring, and he regularly writes about the Kansas City Royals at his personal web site. |
Rob Neyer:
Before spring training, I figured Bergeron, because he's slightly more advanced as a player, and
significantly more advanced as a personality. So far, Bergeron has played particularly well in
exhibition games, so he has to be considered the odds-on favorite. Sorry, I don't know how likely
White is to be traded.
Rene from Philly: Who do you think Brad Radke will go to? Is Atlanta the major contender for his services now?
Rob Neyer:
I've not heard anything, but I think the Twins have to make some sort of deal. Unfortunately, the
Braves aren't thick with pitching prospects right now, and that's what the Twins need.
Art Vandelay: Love your column, Mr. Neyer.
What's your most treasured baseball card?
Rob Neyer:
1957 Topps #400, "Dodgers' Sluggers"
Features Carl Furillo, Gil Hodges, Roy Campanella and Duke Snider.
Devonte: Do you think the Mariners will eventually trade Alex Rodriguez?
Rob Neyer:
The M's are adamant about hanging on to Rodriguez all season. That said, if they're eight or ten
games out of first place at the All-Star break, they'll trade him. If they're in contention, they won't.
I'vegotsomethingtosay!: Rob, be honest, who is your favorite player/person in the MLB?
Rob Neyer:
I don't believe in "liking" professional athletes, but I will admit a certain fondness for Tim
Wakefield. A nice guy, and he's showed admirable persistence over the years.
Jerk of the Week: Is Darryl Strawberry's sudden "absence" going to hurt or help the Yankees?
Rob Neyer:
I think a lot of people forget that Strawberry only batted 49 times last year. It's Chili Davis that the
Yankees will miss. They need to find a lefty-hitting DH, and I still think Nick Johnson should get a
shot at the job.
Metsinquirer: Judging from the patent skills Melvin Mora displayed in the playoffs last year, and his
reputation as someone who understands the fundamentals, why isn't he given a shot to start this
year? Let the older players sub.
Rob Neyer:
Another misconception. Mora actually isn't young at all, he's only three months younger than Joe
Nunnally. What's more, he can't really play.
PiLe: Is this the year for Troy O'Leary to break out and hit 35-40 HR's and bat .300?
Rob Neyer:
Actually, I think what O'Leary did last year is about as good as it gets. If you're looking for a
breakout, how about Trot Nixon? He had laser surgery on his eyes this winter, and I like his
chances for 25-30 homers.
KennyA: Who will be the Royals' fifth starter?
Rob Neyer:
If you enjoy gallows humor, one of the funniest things to happen this spring was Tony Muser
designating Tyler Green as his fifth starter.
Howman: What are your thoughts on Russ Ortiz and Joe Nathan in SF?
Rob Neyer:
Ortiz was badly overworked last year, and he may well break down sometime soon, if not this
year then next. Nathan was not worked hard, but his ERA last year was better than his other
numbers. So both these guys are question marks.
Tracy: Are you and Eddie Epstein going to be traveling the country to plug your forthcoming book?
Rob Neyer:
Yes, but telephonically. Beginning in April, we'll be doing radio interviews in virtually every major
league city. I just got my hardcover copy of the book, "Baseball Dynasties," today, and it looks
great. As for the insides, you'll have to judge that yourself.
Jason Rosen: With all the talk of realignment, I was wondering how it affects a team that switches leagues. The
managerial duties would seem to be more difficult in the NL without the DH, but does the makeup
of a team need to be different to succeed in one league vs the other?
Rob Neyer:
If any teams do switch leagues, you'll hear a lot about NL-style teams and AL-style teams, and
managers having to learn new things ... and it's all poppycock. I mean, if you suddenly need a DH,
how hard is it to find a guy who can hit but can't field? And if you're suddenly a National League
manager, how complicated is the double-switch, really?
Mikeayers: Would it make sense for the Mariners to try to trade for Lance Berkman or Daryle Ward? The
M's need corner OF's who can hit, and have pitching to spare. The Astros have OF's to spare; do
you think Gil Meche or Brett Tomko would be sufficient to get such a deal done?
Rob Neyer:
Unfortunately for players like Ward and Berkman, many baseball men are prejudiced against
outfielders with poor defensive skills. Berkman or Ward would indeed fit perfectly in Seattle, but
it's not going to happen.
D-Backs Fan: What's your take on Jim Leyland? I think he is the worst manager in baseball history. He showed his
true colors last year. It would be a travesty if he goes to the HOF.
Rob Neyer:
Leyland's accomplishments don't match his reputation, but I don't think you have to worry about him
going to Cooperstown. If Billy Southworth (look him up sometime) isn't a Hall of Famer, there's no
way Jim Leyland is.
Ken: How about Barry Bonds? Is there still gas in the tank? What do you expect from him this
year? I presume the new digs will produce a fair HR total.
Rob Neyer:
It's simple. If Barry Bonds is healthy, he will produce. We're talking about one of the ten greatest
players of all time, and those guys are almost always productive into their late 30s.
Friguy19: Ruben Rivera is said to have cut down his swing. Do you expect a big year from the guy who hit
.195 last year?
Rob Neyer:
Well, if he has a "big" year, it would represent the most dramatic turnaround in history. Anything's
possible, but I certainly wouldn't be drafting Rivera for my rotisserie team or anything. His track
record is very consistent. Consistently awful.
Rob Stabs: Do you think getting Darryl Kile and his curveball out of Colorado will help his production this season for
the Cardinals?
Rob Neyer:
Getting out of Colorado helps any pitcher. But it's worth noting that Kile has spent nine seasons
in the major leagues, and in only one of those seasons was he much better than average.
KennyA: How will Bruce Chen respond to his new role, now that John Smoltz is out?
Rob Neyer: Chen struggled in 1999, but I still like him quite a bit. His biggest problem last season was the
home runs, 11 in 51 innings, but that strikes me as a correctable problem. Will he be a Cy Young
candidate this year? No. A serviceable fourth or fifth starter? Yes.
C. Montgomery Burns: If you were Ed Lynch (you'd be taller, of course but...) would you send Corey Patterson to AA
and watch Damon Buford strike out 30 times in April, or simply start Patterson in center?
Rob Neyer:
You bring up Corey Patterson now, and he'd hit .240 and draw 20 walks all season. Patterson's
going to be good and maybe great, but he needs at least another 600 at-bats in the minors.
Andy Monnig: I saw in an interview that Mark McGwire said he thought he had a realistic shot at breaking Hank
Aaron's home run record? Do you agree with him?
Rob Neyer:
Funny that you'd ask. The latest edition of the STATS Baseball Scoreboard arrived today, and
co-author Don Zminda rates McGwire as having a 48-percent chance of passing Aaron. (Griffey
is right behind, at 44 percent.) Obviously, McGwire has to stay healthy, but he's been able to do
that now for three straight seasons.
Frank O'Connor: Are any of the new parks opening this season going to be something special? What are your
favorite retro parks? How do you like Safeco?
Rob Neyer:
If you don't mind, Frank, I'm going to step onto my soapbox now ... Calling the new ballparks
"retro" doesn't really do them justice. What they really are is something completely different, built
to look like old ballparks in a purely cosmetic sense. In terms of "amenities" -- the mall-like
concourses, the luxury boxes -- they're completely modern. And in terms of how far most fans
are from the field, they're like Dodger Stadium and Kauffman Stadium.
My favorite of the new ballparks is Camden Yards. The rest of them are all fine, but lack intimacy
despite what the team's PR flacks will tell you.
Mike: Rob, my condolences on Tony Muser being your manager. Regarding another disaster, is Lou Piniella
manager-for-life, or what? When are they going to get rid of him?
Rob Neyer:
Piniella's been given a free pass for far too long, and if he doesn't win this year he'll be gone.
Kimoto: What are the chances of the Dodgers making the World Series? I mean, it seems that they
reinforced themselves and got rid of some distractions. Do they have a shot?
Rob Neyer:
I think I actually picked them to win their division, by default. But I can't see them winning as
many as 90 games, or reaching the Series.
Julian: Please answer my question so I can finish my paper and still make it to our baseball game against
Montclair State. I am a redshirt for UCSD. What do you think of Kevin Millar?
Rob Neyer:
Millar's okay, doesn't really have the punch you look for in a first baseman. Wouldn't be a bad
platoon player, though.
Richard: I've heard some great stuff about Minnesota catching prospect Matt LeCroy. How far down on your
ROY list would he end up?
Rob Neyer:
I left LeCroy out of my Rookie of the Year list, and now I'm wondering if that was stupid. He's a
major league hitter right now, and a good one, but his defense ain't so hot. If Tom Kelly is willing
to put up with some ugly footwork and questionable pitch-calling, LeCroy is one of the top five
Rookie of the Year candidates.
Thanks for all the questions, I'll be back next week.
| |
ALSO SEE
Rob Neyer chat archive
|
