| | Don't look for the New York Mets to pull off any spring training trades, says ESPN.com's baseball columnist Rob Neyer.
Neyer returned for another go-round with users and said the Mets are in the middle of lots of trade rumors, but unfortunately they just don't have much to offer. Neyer also made a few season projects, offered his opinion on why Arizona hitters had career years last season and made a bold prediction that may have him eating fabric at the end of the season.
If you missed Neyer's March 2 chat, an edited transcript follows:
|  | | Neyer is praying for and predicting a good year from Jeremy Giambi. |
Steve24: Do you think the Red Sox will try to trade for Brad Radke, and if so, what would it cost them?
Rob Neyer: A popular subject today. The three teams most often mentioned in relation to Radke are the Red
Sox, Mets and Reds. The Red Sox seem like the obvious choice because they've got plenty of
talent to deal, including a number of promising young pitchers. One of those, plus outfielder
Michael Coleman, might be enough to pry Radke from the Twins. The Mets, meanwhile, have
very little to trade. And as we've recently seen, the Reds seem unwilling to trade any of their top
prospects.
Andy: Do you think Sean Casey will be the player who hit .375 before the break, or the one who hit .285
after? Or maybe he will have a more consistent .330 season?
Rob Neyer:
Not many players hit .330 every year, and Casey did struggle after the All-Star break last season.
However, I do think he'll settle into the .310-.320 range and add a bit of power as he matures.
Tony Clifton: If you were Commissioner, what are three rule changes you would institute to even the
competitive balance between hitters and pitchers?
Rob Neyer:
Hmmmm ... I've only got two. First, hitters may not wear body armor unless they're protecting
real injuries. And two, I would introduce a new ball with a bit less juice.
TheRedSon: I really enjoyed reading your columns on Rookie of the Year candidates. If Lance Berkman
played somewhere other than Houston or if a trade or injury allowed him to play, would he have
the skills to be one of your candidates?
Rob Neyer:
Yes. If Berkman were assured of an every day job, he would have been among my top five
candidates for Rookie of the Year.
Jerry in Cleveland: What is the word on Jaret Wright? Do people in baseball think that he will turn it around from last
year? Can he pitch like he did in 1997?
Rob Neyer:
First of all, I'm not convinced that Wright is completely healthy. He was abused back in 1997, and
it's possible that he'll never be the same. However, I do think the change of managers might help,
and Wright almost has to improve on the disaster (8-10, 6.06) that was last season.
Greg Pizzo: What are the chances that Johnny Damon still getting traded?
Rob Neyer:
This question keeps coming up, I suppose because it would make so much sense for the Royals.
But if you've followed this organization at all, you know that they rarely do what makes sense, and
every indication is that Damon will break camp with the club in April.
Ben in Cleveland: The Yankees said they were close to sending Ramiro Mendoza to Oakland, who would they get in
return for him?
Rob Neyer:
Seems to me that Matt Stairs would look mighty nice in pinstripes, since the Yankees now need a
lefty-hitting DH. Only problem is that the Athletics don't really have a replacement for Stairs in
right field.
Craig In San Diego: Many Arizona players put up career numbers last year, do you feel there is a mini-Coors Field
effect going on at the BOB?
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NEYER'S FILE
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Rob Neyer worked with Bill James and STATS, Inc. before joining ESPN.com where he writes a weekly baseball column.
His book "Baseball Dynasties," co-authored with Eddie Epstein, will be published this spring, and he regularly writes about the Kansas City Royals at his personal web site. |
Rob Neyer:
Nearly every analyst thought Bank One Ballpark would be a great hitter's park because of the
altitude. But in the stadium's two years, it's actually played slightly as a pitcher's park, relative to
the rest of the National League parks. So no, last year's big numbers shouldn't be attributed to
anything other than skill and luck.
Caespinosa: I've been hearing the name of Jim Edmonds in recent articles about Mets' trade rumors. Have you
heard anything on this and who would the Angels be interested in getting in exchange?
Rob Neyer:
Edmonds would be a good fit for the Mets. But as I said earlier, the Mets don't have much to
offer in return, unless the Angels are desperate for veteran left-handed pitching and old
outfielders.
Brian Weiss: What are your views of Pittsburgh outfielder Chad Hermansen? With the trade of Al Martin, do
you think this is the year he will start for them? I have been following him for the past two
seasons and he has great stats, except for all the strikeouts.
Rob Neyer:
I wrote about Hermansen in my column (Wednesday). He's a good prospect, but in addition to the
strikeouts, he also doesn't walk much. A dark-horse Rookie of the Year candidate, certainly, but
he's still got some growing to do.
Craig in Boston: Do you think Ramon Martinez will be an effective pitcher this year for Boston and at what level
(wins, era, etc.)? Is he a qualified No. 2 guy or better or worse than that?
Rob Neyer:
Remember, Ramon pitched brilliantly in September last season, and the early reports this spring
suggest that he's throwing wonderfully. There will always be questions about his health, but if
Martinez is healthy, I do think he can be a capable No. 2 starter.
KillerB: You mentioned Vernon Wells in your AL Rookie article but didn't include him in your top seven
rankings. Do you believe Jose Cruz will/deserves to start, or are we looking at split time?
Rob Neyer:
A lot of people don't agree with this, but I'm not convinced that Wells is ready to put up Rookie of
the Year numbers. Throw in the fact that he has to fight Cruz for the job in center field, and I just
don't think he's a strong candidate. That said, I do think he'll be a good player in 2001, and a star
by 2003.
Johnnypark: Is there any chance Bud will abolish the DH any time soon?
Rob Neyer: I guarantee you, the DH will be in place through the 2001 season, and probably well past that.
Eddie: With Juan Gonzalez in the lineup, Bobby Higginson healthy, and hopefully a FULL season of the real Tony
Clark, how do you think the Tigers stand? I realize the playoffs are a pipe dream, but how about
80-85 wins?
Rob Neyer:
I've been tough on the Tigers, perhaps a bit too tough. Is 85 wins a realistic goal? Yeah, it
probably is because this club should score a fair number of runs. Long-term, I still don't like their
future because GM Randy Smith doesn't value hitters who get on base.
Rene Hartl: You said recently that you don't see Kevin Barker (rookie Brewer 1B) being good enough to be in the
bigs (I'm paraphrasing). It seemed to me like he came up and performed as Jeremy Giambi did
(decent average, mysterious power outage). Could they have similar careers?
Rob Neyer:
Giambi was an outstanding hitter in the minor leagues. Barker was not. However, if used in a
platoon role, Barker could be a useful player for Milwaukee.
AJ: What is Jeffrey Hammonds' potential full-year production in 2000?
Rob Neyer:
As you might expect given his new home (Coors Field), Hammonds will do well when he's able to
play ... but that'll only be about three-fourths of the time, unless he's found some sort of miracle
salve for his injury rash.
Dirk Ramrod: Will Lingo stated (Wednesday) that he believed the Royals gained the advantage in the Giambi for
Laxton trade. I know that you have vehemently chastised the trade from the Royals perspective.
What does Lingo see?
Rob Neyer:
A fair number of evaluators don't like Giambi because he's slow and really doesn't have a
position. Well, one might have said the same of Harmon Killebrew, and last I checked he had his
own plaque in Cooperstown. If Brett Laxton winds up having a better career than Jeremy Giambi,
I'll eat my Springfield Isotopes cap.
Bill: Do you think that Raul Mondesi will help the Jays fans forget Shawn Green?
Rob Neyer:
Mondesi's not quite the player that Green is, but I think Mondesi is going to surprise a lot of people
this year. He's a good player whose numbers should improve out of Dodger Stadium.
Jason: How is Carlos Guillen adjusting to third base so far with the Mariners?
Rob Neyer:
I have no idea. But given that Guillen was considered a solid defensive shortstop and second
baseman, I suspect he'll do just fine at third base. The real question should be, "How is Carlos
Guillen adjusting to major league pitchers?" I think he'll be a joke as a hitter, and has little value if
he's not playing shortstop.
Mel Ott: Baseball America's lists of top prospects tend to favor pitchers over everyday players, yet from
anecdotal evidence it seems to me that the statistics of everyday players are much more likely to
be maintained in the majors. I would think that their chances of a long healthy career are
much higher, giving them a pronounced edge in career value.
Rob Neyer:
You're absolutely right. Take ten great pitching prospects, and five of them will get hurt before
they have a chance to win 100 games. Take ten great hitting prospects, and seven or eight will
enjoy long, productive careers. (And yes, I'm just making up these numbers.)
Maddux_fan: What's your perspective on Greg Maddux? He started awful last year (by his standard) and
finished pretty well. Do you think it was the new strike zone, or what ? And his numbers for
2000?
Rob Neyer:
Funny thing is, Maddux was incredibly lucky last year, went 19-9 only because the Braves scored
a lot of runs when he pitched. I don't think he'll win any more Cy Young Awards, but he'll remain
an effective pitcher, and will improve somewhat this season.
Kenny: Who do you see winning the D'backs right field job?
Rob Neyer:
If I had to pick somebody as my right fielder today, it would be Bernard Gilkey, with David
Dellucci not far behind. But you never know, presumably there's still a good hitter inside Travis
Lee, fighting to get out.
Greg Cappel: Where can I get a Springfield Isotopes hat of my own?
Rob Neyer: You can get your very own Springfield Isotopes hat from the Cooperstown Ballcap Company.
Just do a web search, and you'll find their excellent site.
Doug: Do you think Brian Daubach will blossom into a solid No. 4 or 5 hitter this year for the Red Sox?
Rob Neyer: What we saw from Daubach last season might be as good as it gets. At best, he'll have a decent
career as a No. 6 hitter, platooning at first base or DH.
Bob from CT: Matt Riley, good fit or not?
Rob Neyer: Riley is Baltimore's top pitching prospect, but he could use another half-season down in Triple-A.
Should be a real good pitcher if he's healthy.
Thanks for all the questions, see you next week.
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