| | If you were hoping your team's new stadium was going to catapult your team to the top of the league, think again says ESPN.com baseball columnist Rob Neyer.
In his latest chat session with users, Neyer explained why new stadiums don't guarantee success. He also offered his opinion on the Darryl Strawberry situation, how the Reds can change his opinion about the NL Central and revealed his choice for Athlete of the Century.
An edited transcript from Neyer's Feb. 24 chat follows:
Phil: Why do guys like Darryl Strawberry and Steve Howe get an unlimited amount of chances to stay in baseball
after doing drugs and beating up women, when Pete Rose does something (which is legal in some
states) and the commissioner won't even consider letting him back into the league? What does this
tell kids? It's OK to do drugs and beat women, they will forgive you for that, but don't get caught
gambling. I really don't understand this!
Rob Neyer: I knew I'd get this question, so I've already got an answer prepared. There's a difference
between what Strawberry and Howe did, and what Rose did. While the former two certainly
sullied the game's reputation, what Rose (probably) did, threatened the integrity of the game.
There is a reason for the stiff penalties mandated for gambling on baseball. As for what all this
tells kids, I'd be surprised if many kids ever listened to Darryl Strawberry or Steve Howe.
Rick: Will we ever start seeing the OPS stat regularly published in place of batting average?
Rob Neyer:
In place of? Maybe not. But in addition to? Probably, and it might happen sooner than you think.
In my introduction to the latest edition of The Baseball Prospectus (a great book, by the way), I
argue that the revolution is picking up steam, and that one day nearly every general manager will
value on-base percentage, etc. Shoot, maybe even the sportswriters will, too.
Johnny Bravo: With the likely loss of Darryl Strawberry for the season, one name that would fit the DH role
perfectly is Matt Stairs. Do you know if he is available? And if so, what would it cost to get him?
Rob Neyer:
You're right, Johnny, Stairs would be a perfect fit for the Yankees. And now that the Athletics
have Jeremy Giambi, they would barely miss Stairs. I suspect the Yankees could have him for a
couple of decent prospects, maybe Donzell McDonald and a pitcher.
Ross: I'm sorry, I'm an angry Mets fan. I agree that we need some outfield help, but do you think that
we'll get any significant contributions from either Melvin Mora or Jay Payton, should the need
arise?
Rob Neyer:
Are you angry at me, or the Mets? Melvin Mora's a fifth outfielder, at best. Payton would hit OK
if he stayed healthy, but at this point he really can't throw. So the Mets still need a quality
outfielder.
Doug Sisk: Do you believe Gary Carter warrants entry to Cooperstown considering his status as an all-star
for so many years, his gold gloves and his numbers at the plate which are comparable to Fisks'. His
status as top player at his position for a period between Bench, and....? Do you feel he should be
in?
Rob Neyer:
There are perhaps eight or nine things in this world that I know, with metaphysical certitude. That
Gary Carter deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame is one of them, and in my new book I devote the
better part of two pages to making the argument.
Rjb: All these homers are getting on my nerves. What do you think the chances are of a return to
historically normal run-scoring levels in the near (5-10 year) future?
Rob Neyer:
Nothing stays the same forever. However, at this point there is absolutely no end in sight to the
current environment. The hitters are too strong, and too many of the new ballparks are cozy.
Nick: What the heck are the Red Sox doing bringing in Gary Gaetti? He can't possibly help them, can
he?
Rob Neyer:
I wouldn't read too much into this. Teams will sometimes sign a veteran to a free-agent deal prior
to spring training, just so he has someplace to go. Now if the Red Sox or some other team
suddenly need a third baseman, Gaetti will be ready to play. Within his own limited abilities, of
course.
Dulinor: I figure you're the man to ask about the Royals. What do you think of the announcement that
Dan Reichert and Chris Fussell were out of the running for the rotation? Is this a case of breaking them in
slowly (a la Elarton) or has the organization soured on them?
Rob Neyer:
The latter, I suspect. Tony Muser would rather give the No. 5 spot in the rotation to a "proven"
major leaguer like Tyler Green, even if that proven major leaguer's career ERA starts with a "5"
and isn't hiding anything better. For more on the Royals (I know there are a few fans out there),
check out www.robneyer.com.
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NEYER'S FILE
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Rob Neyer worked with Bill James and STATS, Inc. before joining ESPN.com where he writes a weekly baseball column.
His book "Baseball Dynasties," co-authored with Eddie Epstein, will be published this spring, and he regularly writes about the Kansas City Royals at his personal web site. |
A.G. Pennypacker: Can somebody explain to me why David Segui is a DH?
Rob Neyer:
It's like that old joke about the 800-pound gorilla, and in Toronto Carlos Delgado is that gorilla. He
wants to play first base, so he's going to play first base even if it costs the Jays a few runs this
season.
Todd From Boston: I've read a couple of articles where Astro players have said "Red Sox Fans" don't understand
how good Carl Everett is! How good is he?
Rob Neyer:
I know I'm going to sound like a head-in-the-sand stat-head here, but what the Astros say doesn't
really interest me. Players always overrate the impact of "chemistry," and the Astros will be just
fine without Everett. He's good, but he's not that good, and Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell were both more
valuable last season.
Nick: Do you think that Derek Lowe can do the job, or do you think Boston needs to acquire a proven
closer?
Rob Neyer:
He might actually be more valuable in the rotation (Jeff Fassero??), but Lowe will do quite well if
given the chance to finish games.
Mac Is God: Since two other ESPN columnists have weighed in on the issue -- how do you rate J. D. Drew vs.
Eric Chavez 2.0? Who will be the better player in both the short and the long-term?
Rob Neyer:
There's really not a whisker of difference when comparing their potentials, but I like Drew
because he's drawing from a greater breadth of skills.
Jeffrey Burk: What's the best the Reds can hope for this season from Dante Bichette? I can envision him hitting
.285 with 25 home runs with an OBP around .320.
Rob Neyer:
That actually sounds just about right. Now, is that the guy you want playing left field and batting
cleanup?
Carl: Are there any books out there like the ones Bill James used to put out before each season?
Rob Neyer:
There will never be another Bill James, just as there will never be another Babe Ruth. However,
the aforementioned Baseball Prospectus is currently the best annual book, and certainly contains
some of the spirit of Bill's work.
Mark: Will John Halama make Seattle's rotation with the addition of Brett Tomko?
Rob Neyer:
Right now, it's Tomko who's on the outside looking in. However, I suspect that the Mariners will
package one of their young starters in a deal for a left-handed-hitting outfielder, because the guys
they've got now aren't good enough to win.
Sven: How good is Brad Penny? The Marlins traded away one of the best young closers that was
available to get him. When will he be pitching in the majors?
Rob Neyer:
If he stays healthy, Penny's going to be outstanding. Right now he's one of the five best pitching
prospects in the minors, and he's currently considered the No. 1 candidate for the No. 5 spot in
the Marlins rotation.
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“ |
Let
me be very blunt. The Yankees didn't win three
World Series by being stupid enough to sign bums
like (Paul) Sorrento. With all due respect, the man simply can't hit any more.
” |
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— Rob Neyer |
Marty in Houston: I know you're on record as saying that the Astros are still the team to beat in the NL Central. But
I wonder about the pitching. I still think it's better than anyone else's in the division. What do you
think about Chris Holt's putting up better numbers and the (always tenuous) set up situation? Also,
tell me something, anything good about Dotel and Roger Cedeno. Please?
Rob Neyer:
Given Larry Dierker and Vern Ruhle's great success with young pitchers the last few years, I
think we have to give them the benefit of the doubt. Holt almost has to improve on his 1999
record (5-13, 4.66), and Dotel is just the kind of pitcher who seems to blossom in Houston.
Bill Mabe: Early reports from Braves camp indicate that Andres Galarraga has been hitting well in BP including off
Greg Maddux and John Smoltz? Can we read anything at all into this, or is it just too early?
Rob Neyer:
Uh, the second of those. I mean, we're still in a month that ends with "ary," and somehow I don't
think that Maddux and Smoltz are giving Big Cat their best stuff.
Amos: Every year, a small market team surprises everyone with success. Who do you think it will be this
year?
Rob Neyer:
Hmmm, good question. The Athletics are a trendy pick, but they did win 87 games last year so
I'm not sure if you'd categorize them as a surprise. How about the White Sox? They're young,
and they've got some good pitching prospects.
Mark The Shard: Which way do you think Shawn Green's numbers will go now that he's wearing
National League Dodger blue?
Rob Neyer:
Hard to say, as Dodger Stadium will be configured somewhat differently this season. I think his
numbers will drop somewhat, simply because he's not really as good as last year's performance.
Jim: What is going to happen with Paul Sorrento? Now that it looks like Straw will be history, Sorrento
seems like a good fit for the world champs, and its likely that K.C. wouldn't ask for much.
Rob Neyer:
Let me be very blunt. The Yankees didn't win three World Series by being stupid enough to sign
bums like Sorrento. With all due respect, the man simply can't hit any more.
Mike: Who's worse at first, Frank Thomas or one of the Flying Giambi Brothers?
Rob Neyer:
This question amuses me.
In order of worseness:
1. Jeremy Giambi
2. Frank Thomas
3. Jason Giambi
David: Don't you find it strange how the White Sox can be considered a "small market" team while
the Indians are not? Chicago is a huge city, Cleveland is a small city. What's up with that?
Rob Neyer:
The term "small market" is a misnomer, as I have written many times. It makes more sense to
classify teams as "low-revenue" and "high-revenue," because teams in large markets can still
suffer financially if they play in old ballparks and don't enjoy lucrative local TV deals.
Philadelphia's one example.
Chip: When will the rest of the media (besides you) realize that Bobby Abreu is a superstar in the
making?
Rob Neyer:
One of two things has to happen for Abreu to get his due. Either he has to make a big statistical
splash -- lead the league in hitting for a few months or hit 45 home runs, something like that -- or
the Phillies have to at least come close to reaching the postseason.
Andy: Which new stadium are you most excited about seeing this season?
Rob Neyer:
The new ballpark in San Francisco, I suppose, if only because it would be neat to see somebody homer
into the Bay. What I'm really excited about is spending the season at Fenway Park, which is
what I'll be doing.
Chip: How much impact will the new stadiums that will open in smaller markets (Pittsburgh, Milwaukee,
etc.) have on those teams' ability to go after big (or even semi-big) name free agents and become
more competitive? I know in Pittsburgh McClatchy has said their payroll will still only increase up
to $45-50 million.
Rob Neyer:
What everyone seems to miss is that within five or ten years nearly every team will have a new
or almost-new ballpark ... and then where's the advantage? Right, back with the teams that have
the big local TV deals, the Yankees and Mets and Dodgers and Braves. In the long run, new
ballparks may ensure survival, but they certainly don't guarantee success.
Chase: Now that Straw is going to be out of the picture most definitely, what do you think about sticking
Tino Martinez in the DH slot for the Yanks and bringing up Nick Johnson to play first?
Rob Neyer:
I discuss this very possibility in my column (Thursday). I think Tim Raines will be the first option as
lefty-hitting DH, but if he struggles, we may well see Johnson early in the summer. However, he
still needs to work on his defense so he'll probably DH initially.
Jase: When is Andruw Jones going to hit superstar status??
Rob Neyer:
June 22, 2002. At 9:13 p.m., Eastern Time.
Chip Blakley: I know you've picked the Astros to win the NL Central, but I've heard rumors about the Reds
acquiring a pitcher, possibly Brad Radke. If they can make a deal like this, would they be your
choice to win the NL Central?
Rob Neyer:
If the Reds acquire a top starting pitcher -- Radke qualifies, but just barely -- I would seriously
consider making them my favorites in the Central.
Priano: Why haven't I heard anyone mention Roberto Kelly as DH in Strawberry's absence? He is a good
hitter against lefties and righties?
Rob Neyer:
Frankly, Kelly simply is not a good option, and I'm answering this question only because you're not
the first person to pose it.
Over the last five years, Kelly's on-base and slugging percentages against right-handed pitchers
were .316 and .406, neither of which is good enough. Oh, and his stats against righties last year
were almost exactly the same.
Ozzie: Who would have been your pick for Athlete of the 20th Century?
Rob Neyer:
I'd have picked Babe Ruth. But then, I'm more interested in sports than society.
Chip: What historic stadium do you think will be the first to be torn down -- Fenway, Yankee, or
Wrigley?
Rob Neyer:
Fenway will be the first to go, probably in 2005 or '06. Next will be Yankee, a year or two later.
And Wrigley Field will survive for quite some time, as something of a museum, a monument to the
early 20th century.
Thanks for all the great questions, everyone. I'll be back next week, hope to "see" you then. | |
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