| | ESPN.com baseball columnist Rob Neyer put his keyboard where his mouth is on Thursday, challenging all Mets' fans to a bet on the team's outcome. Before you call our HR office, we should inform you that no cash is on the line -- only pride. |  | | How many games will the Mets win with Hampton? |
Neyer clarified the bet later in the chat, saying all deals are off if the Mets acquire an outfielder before the start of the season. To read more about the bet's conditions and Rob's other ramblings, read the edited transcript from his Feb. 3 chat session below.
Neyer: Happy Thursday! I've already got more good questions than I'll be able to answer, but don't let
that stop you from firing off a few more.
Greg Pizzo: I just read Rany's piece on the Tigers. I have to agree with him, that Juan Gonzalez was not
exactly what the Tigers' batting order needed. Your take on his article?
Neyer: Look, Gonzalez is a good player. But Tigers GM Randy Smith has never been good at
collecting hitters, mostly because the value of on-base percentage completely escapes him. This
team needs a young(er) Tony Phillips, not a big RBI guy.
Philliesphan©: With a good core of relatively young everyday players including Scott Rolen (age 24), Bobby
Abreau (25), Mike Lieberthal (28), Doug Glanville(29) and a pitching staff that includes an
eventually healthy Curt Schilling and new-comer Andy Ashby, how far are the Phillies away
from playoff contention?
Neyer: I like the Phillies, I really do. But aside from Rolen the infield is punchless, and Gant's not great
shakes in left. The Phillies have a shot at the Wild Card only if Ashby is great, and Schilling
recovers nicely from his current injury.
John: Do you think that the Big Cat will return to pre-cancer form?
Neyer: I think it's pretty unrealistic to expect that, given that he's not only coming off a lost season, but
is almost 39 years old. The Braves have been stockpiling first basemen, so clearly they don't
have high expectations for Galarraga.
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NEYER'S FILE
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Neyer has been writing a daily baseball column for ESPN.com since
1996. His book "Baseball Dynasties," co-authored with Eddie Epstein,
will be published this spring by W.W. Norton.
Neyer spent his formative baseball years at the feet of author Bill James, then apprenticed for two years with STATS, Inc. before graduating to his own daily ESPN.com column. |
ArtK: What's the latest on Roberto Petagine? Is any major league team going to sign him
or will he return to Japan for another year?
Neyer: You spelled it correctly. After a huge season in Japan, Petagine signed for another year there.
Daryl Allison: Do you think Corey Patterson will be taking time away from Damon Buford in CF later this year? Will he be working his way up through the system as V. Wells did last year?
Neyer: It's rare for a player to "triple jump" as Wells did in 1999. But Patterson is one of the game's
top two or three prospects. He'll start the season in Class AA, and if he tears it up there, who
knows? But all it takes is a slight misstep, and we won't see him until September.
Steve: Your book sounds like a pretty great one, but from what I could tell of Bill James's comments,
it does not cover the 19th century. Is this true, and if so, why not?
Neyer: We didn't consider 19th century teams along with the rest because the game changed so much
in the early days. Different pitching distances, different numbers of balls needed for a walk,
franchises ceasing to exist all the time, etc. However, we do have a separate chapter on the
greatest 19th century teams, which is probably more than enough for most people.
Neyer_is_a_god: Convince me in a couple of sentences to buy your new book. I've got 15 bucks to
spare and can't decide between that and the new Backstreet Boys CD.
Neyer: Hey, I'd go with the Backstreet Boys. They rock.
No, but seriously folks ... Don't take my word for it. You can learn more about my book,
"Baseball Dynasties," at my (non-commercial) web site, robneyer.com. And that's the last I'll
say about the book. Today.
RJGator: Who writes those cool catchphrases at the end of your articles?
Neyer: Wow, you're the first to ask this question. Actually, I've got a team of skinny monkeys in the
basement, tapping away on old Underwood typewriters. I just change the paper from time to
time, and they do the rest.
Philliesphan©: Is it even remotely possible that some team may be interested in taking Ron Gant off of the
Phillies' hands?
Neyer: Sure. If the Phillies really want to open up a spot for Pat Burrell in left field, they can trade him
... as long as they send along a few million bucks, too. I'd say there's about a 50/50 chance of
this happening. I mean, if the Astros could unload Derek Bell, anything's possible.
Bill: Do you really think only 90 games is an accurate prediction for the Mets? Last year,
before Ventura, Alfonzo, Henderson, and Cedeno had the years they did, I seem to recall you
predicted they would win around 90-92 games at best, because their pitching was weak. Now,
you say they improved their pitching, but all these guys should decline (and Cedeno is gone) so
you pick them to do even worse? I don't get it.
Neyer: I'll answer one of these questions, and then no more from Mets fans because you're generally unable to see the big picture. No offense.
Actually, my prediction of 90 wins might be optimistic. The outfield's a joke, quite frankly. They
lose production at first base, Alfonzo is going to fall off some, and so will Ventura. Not a lot,
but some. Hampton's obviously a great addition, and I figure he'll just about balance the likely
decline in the bullpen.
I'll make all of the Mets fans who have been inundating my e-mailbox a deal ... If the Mets win
more than 90 games -- and actually, most of you seem to think they'll win 100 -- then I'll write
a column in late September explaining how stupid I was. But if they win fewer than 90, then I
expect a written apology from each and every one of you.
Deal?
Oriole Fan: What's next for the Mets?
Neyer: Okay, if you're really an Oriole fan ... A caveat about my last answer. If the Mets make a deal
for a star-quality outfielder -- and I think they'd like to -- then I do think they'd have a shot at
the Wild Card. In which case all deals are off.
Jeff: I recently read that Octavio Dotel has lost a few MPH on his fastball. Is he going to really be
the great pitcher the Astros are banking on?
Neyer:
I haven't heard anything about that, but I don't know that the Astros are really banking on
Dotel. It's not like they don't already have plenty of guys who can start. But I suspect that for a
young pitcher with a good arm, there's not better place to be than Houston.
Jeff : I think it's a mistake for the Reds to give up Scott Williamson for Griffey like the rumors say.
Am I wrong or is his potential worth more than one year of service from one great player? I
remember your article yesterday saying you don't think one great player is worth more than 3 or
4 games. Do you think Jim Bowden should make a deal involving Williamson?
Neyer: Relief pitchers, and especially young relief pitchers, are disposable commodities for two
reasons. One, relief pitchers are generally overrated (by fans and broadcasters) anyway. Why
do you think they don't make as much money as guys at other positions? And two, young
relievers often don't last more than a few years. If I could get something good for Williamson, I
wouldn't hesitate.
Jeff: Do you think Erubiel Durazo will be as good this year? Could Lee take his old job back?
Neyer: My gut tells me that Durazo won't be quite as good as he was last year. But he'll still be plenty
good enough to fend off Lee, who ranks as one of the biggest disappointments in recent years.
Jason: Why didn't Derek Jeter get more than $10 million from the Yankees? Everybody knows they
are willing to spend and spend. They paid top dollar for older stars, why not for a young gun like
Jeter?
Neyer:
The long-term deal seems like a no-brainer, and in fact it may still happen. But I can't help wondering ... the Yankees have two great prospects who play shortstop (though one of them
will miss the coming season after getting hurt in a car accident). Is it possible that the Yankees
might let Jeter walk, thus shaving all those millions off the payroll a year from now? Probably
not. But the Yankees do operate under a budget, sort of, and eventually some tough decisions
will have to be made.
Daryl Allison: What are the Pirates going to do with Chad Hermansen?
Neyer: I wrote about this in my column yesterday (where were you?), but right now Hermansen is
ticketed for Nashville again. If the Pirates can trade Al Martin, however, Hermansen will
presumably plays at least semi-regularly in left field.
Jurgo: Can the Reds overtake the Astros in the NL Central this year? Do you think a lot of the Reds
overachieved last year?
Neyer:
I know this won't please my friends in the Queen City, but when I look at the 1999 Reds I see
a classic over-achieving team. The Reds will struggle to win 85 games this season.
Rob: Got a quick question about Jeff Cirillo. Simply put, is he worth all the hype that he's
getting? I've heard reports that he "could hit .350 with 40 homers". Are they looking at the
same player I am?
Neyer: Well, the 40 homers is silly, given that Cirillo's career high is 15 (twice). Coors Field is a great
home-run park, but it's not that great. On the other hand, .350 (with a great OBP, which is
more important) is quite possible. Cirillo's hit .321 and .326 the last two years, and if he
maintains that level of ability, .350's no big deal.
Jeff: Pat Hentgen hasn't been good in three years, neither has Kile. Do you think these two acquisitions will make the Cards much better?
Neyer: "Much better"? No, they don't. But maybe better enough, assuming that Andy Benes and Rick
Ankiel both pitch well. I see the Cardinals fighting with the Reds for second place, and either of
them could challenge for the Wild Card.
Jason Frank Roberts: Will Jason Kendall be as good as he was last year?
Neyer:
The only example that I can think of is Robin Ventura, who also snapped one of his legs. It
took Ventura a year to return to top form, but one example really doesn't tell us a whole lot. I
wouldn't bet on Kendall to duplicate last year's pre-injury numbers, but everybody says he's
back at full strength.
Matt: Do you honestly believe anyone can challenge the Yanks? Barring a total collapse of the older
Yanks or a major injury or two, I see no evidence.
Neyer:
As the rosters are currently constructed, it's hard to see anyone challenging the Yankees. But
like most teams, the Yankees are a bit vulnerable if two of the starters get hurt, and that can
happen to anybody.
Tony: Why did you pick the Angels as a last place team for the coming season? Darin Erstad is due
for a break out season and Tim Salmon and Garret Anderson should be healthy. In your
opinion who should the Angels get for Jim Edmonds? Is Freddy Garcia a possibility? They are
similar in team value.
Neyer:
Hmmm, I think you're confusing me with someone else, because I haven't picked the Angels for
last place. But now that you mention it, I will pick the Angels for last place. It's not a good
organization, and I have no idea why you think Salmon will be healthy, given that he never has
been before.
Eric: With John Rocker gone for a month who do you expect to take over the Brave's closer job?
Neyer: Assuming Kerry Ligtenberg's not ready, I would expect Kevin McGlinchy to take over.
You know, McGlinchy is yet another example of the Braves' incredible ability to develop young
relief pitchers. Every year, it seems, they take some guy who wasn't considered a prospect and
turn him into a sub-3.00 ERA relief pitcher.
And remember, there's always the possibility that Rocker's suspension will be lessened. As it
should be.
J.L.: Will Frank Thomas ever be the "Big Hurt" of old? Is his current problems physical, mental, or is
he just getting old? I know he may never have his power back, but can he regain his batting
eye, when his OBP was consistantly near the top?
Neyer: After two straight mediocre years? Thomas will enjoy more good seasons, but I don't think
we'll ever see the "real" Big Hurt again, the guy who once led his league in both slugging and
on-base percentage in the same year.
Thanks for all the questions, everyone, you set a new off-season record! | |
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