| | To kick off the college basketball preview, ESPN.com senior writer Andy Katz dropped by to chat. Among the topics he covered were his player of the year, Auburn's non-conference schedule, the state of the Big 12 and how the recent suspensions of Ed Cota and Terrence Newby will affect the North Carolina Tar Heels.
If you missed Katz's Nov. 1 chat, an edited transcript follows.
ChixParm: Andy,
How do you see the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament as a benchmark for the 1999-2000
season? Also, if there is a repeat of the national championship in the finals, hoe do you compare
the game vs. last year?
Andy Katz: It's by far the best early-season foursome that they've put together since they started exempted
tournaments. It's a little too early for Duke and Stanford but it will be a good gauge to see how
ready Jason Williams is for Duke and how mature their newcomers in the frontcourt are, as well
as Stanford's attempts to play up-tempo. Iowa will be overmatched. Connecticut should be the
best-prepared of the four, with Doug Wrenn and Ajou Deng's debuts being the focal point for
the Huskies. If it's a rematch of the title game, expect another UConn win...this time, a little
easier.
Terps32: With Mateen Cleaves out, who do you consider the preseason pick for Player of the Year?
Andy Katz: The best player in the game is still Quentin Richardson, regardless. He has a great shot to win
the award even if DePaul doesn't make the tournament. I always thought Cleaves was a tough
sell, even when he was healthy.
Mark: What do you think of Florida's chances to win the SEC this year?
Andy Katz: Florida should win the East division and battle Auburn for the overall title. Donnell Harvey might
be the most important newcomer in the country because the Gators were overmatched on the
boards last year. The key will be how Billy Donovan uses Teddy Dupay and freshman Brett
Nelson. Dupay will likely have to play more shooting guard.
Mateen Cleaves' Son: What is the best conference in the nation? Does the Big 10 still have the edge because of the
two Final Four teams from last year?
Andy Katz: It's a close call between the Big Ten and the SEC. The Big Ten has three potential Final Four
teams (Mich. State, Ohio State, Illinois) and a couple of likely tourney teams in Purdue and
Indiana, with Wisconsin being a bubble team. The SEC realistically has two potential Final Four
teams -- Florida and Auburn -- with Kentucky and Tennessee viable candidates. The rest of
the schools, like Arkansas and Mississippi State, LSU, and Alabama are all bubble teams.
aaron: Andy,
Do you see the foundation being built at Auburn to be a top 25 team for the next three to four
years with the likes of Adam Harrington and David Reid in the future, and how about the Tigers
this year?
Andy Katz: Yes, Auburn will certainly stick around. The Tigers have no excuse with four of five starters
back, to vie for a No. 1 seed again. But every team is judged on NCAA runs, and Auburn
needs to get to the Elite Eight at least. Auburn still did not upgrade its schedule like it should
have after last season.
AL: I went to a cincinnati practice recently, and Kenyon Martin and Pete mickel look like there
going to be hard to stop,throw in Demarr Johnson and Kenny Satterfield they are very strong
team, How far do you think they can go?
Andy Katz: All the pieces are in place for Cincy to make a Final Four run. They have the shooter they need
in DerMarr, the point they need in Satterfield. This team has no excuses, and anything less than
a Final Four appearance will be a disappointment.
IU fan: How can you say Illinois is a potential final four team?
Andy Katz: First of all, what did you think when Ohio State went last year? If we had predicted the
Buckeyes a year ago, you would have questioned us then. Illinois gets the nod for the same
reason -- they've reloaded, they had a great end of the year. They've got a scorer at every
position with the addition of Brian Cook in the middle and JC forward Marcus Griffin inside.
Frank Williams gives them a point guard who can challenge a healthy Cleaves and Scoonie
Penn in the Big Ten.
tim: Andy what's your thoughts on, 2 new coaches. Quin Snyder & Matt Doherty? Do you think
both were good hires for their respective schools?
Andy Katz: Missouri had to go with an energetic coach after Norm Stewart. Snyder will get similar talent
and conceivably do what Billy Donovan did at Florida, although Missouri doesn't need to go
half as far. Notre Dame tried to go for a big name but didn't want to lose control. Doherty fits
their profile because he'll do what he's told, won't make trouble and will produce a competitive
program. It may not energize the Notre Dame diaspora, but he can certainly keep the Irish
competitive in the Big East. He has a good base to work with in Troy Murphy, but they're not
going to move up in the Big East unless they get a high-profile midwesterner to stay home.
Zach Rockwood: How do you feel about Indiana this year? Next year, Indiana signed Jared Jefferies earlier this
morning and have other hopefuls in the fold.
Andy Katz: Getting Jeffries was a must, but the Hoosiers aren't going to move up with just one player.
They're going to need to find a replacement for A.J. Guyton and keep players there the length
of their college careers to build a consistent Big Ten title contender.
RobF: Can Brendan Haywood turn into a dominate force for North Carolina this year
Andy Katz: Possibly. He certainly proved that he can be a consistent low-post scorer during the World
University Games. If theTar Heels are going to a more up-tempo style, he'll be pushed to keep
up. Ed Cota can't over-run him and forget about him in the post.
AdaSoonerBilly: Could you comment on Big XII basketball? Who would you pick as top 3 or 4 teams in the
conference
Andy Katz: The Big 12 took a hit last year during a normal recycle of talent. But the top half of the league
should be comparable to any other high-major conference. The top four teams are Kansas,
Texas, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. But the pressure is on Kansas and Texas to get to the
second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Max Frause: Seeing how weak the Pac-10 in football is this year wonders about the demise of this
conference. What do they look like in basketball this year?
Andy Katz: They are two totally different sports and there is no correlation. The basketball conference may
be as deep as any in the country, with three Final Four contenders -- Arizona, UCLA and
Stanford -- and five more potential bubble teams in Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, USC and
Arizona State. Obviously eight teams won't go to the NCAAs, but all have a shot at
contending.
Bryan: Can the University of marlyand make it back to the sweet sixteen and what do you think of
Juan Dixon
Andy Katz: Yes, Maryland can make it back... in fact, it should. With Terence Morris, Dixon, Steven
Blake, Danny Miller and Lonny Baxter, they have five productive scorers and an ability to play
some pressure. They won't be able to play as much, though. Dixon, not Blake, will pick up
more of the slack that Steve Francis left behind. Dixon has to be more of the creator and less
the scorer.
Skilovr_98: What's the word out on the streets concerning the CAA? Any long-shots to make it past the
first round.
Andy Katz: I'd question whether even the streets of Richmond are abuzz over the CAA. But the conference
members are well aware that two teams -- George Mason and East Carolina -- are legitimate
tourney teams. Richmond and Old Dominion, as well as VCU, could cause problems enough to
warrant another postseason (NIT) team. If George Mason gets in, it might have the go-to
player to advance past round one in 28-year-old forward George Evans.
Gord Edwards: How do you think Michigan will do and does Brian Ellerbe have the capability of leading them
to the Final Four this year or in the future?
Andy Katz: No on the Final Four this year. It's too early to speculate if he'll be able to get the Wolverines
back there in the future. Michigan has a ton of questions, notably how it will share the ball
between three freshmen -- LaVell Blanchard, Jamal Crawford and Kevin Gaines. This isn't like
Webber, Rose and Howard of the Fab Five. This team's fate will be determined by how
unselfish they are.
drew: You mentioned earlier that you felt Auburn needed to upgrade the schedule
from last year, but had not. With the addition of teams such as Stanford, Penn, FSU, and UAB
along with traditional tourney teams coppin state and bradley(not to mention the San Juan
Shootout tourney), who else should we have added? We also added a tough nosed Southern
Miss team that was quite good last year. Given the fact that we play each SEC team twice,
shouldn't this be enough?
Andy Katz: Good points. However, every one of those games except for Stanford and the San Juan
Shootout are at home. The Tigers don't play a true road game until at Mississippi State on Jan.
15. It's a gamble, and one they could get burned on, by not playing on the road and handling
that pressure.
Adam: Andy, what do you think of John Chaney's chances this year?
Andy Katz: It's his best chance to get to the Final Four in his career. They should have the answer to their
perimeter woes with Lynn Greer and Quincy Wadley. Like Cincinnati, there really aren't any
excuses with this team.
DukeFan2000: is there any chance Coach K would leave for the NBA?
Andy Katz: No. I think the window has closed. Money is no longer a concern, at least without knowing his
portfolio, and he seems energized with the knowledge of responding to the early departures. I
would think that the failures of Rick Pitino and John Calipari might scare off other college
coaches.
mike: What do you think about the suspensions of Cota and Newby at
UNC and what effect could that have on the tarheels?
Andy Katz: Without having a chance to report on it, the trend for misdemeanor charges is usually a
moderate suspension. In a worst-case scenario barring any legal problems, situations like this
usually mean the players are suspended for the first few games. If that's the case, then the Tar
Heels would be without them for the Maui Classic....and possibly the Michgan State game, but
this is pure speculation. I would expect them to return to the team and continue on their run to
the ACC and national title. The worst thing this would do for their team would likely be to halt
Guthridge's implementation of playing more full-court, pressure defense.
Bleeding Blue and Gold: Andy, my friend, what's the latest on UCLA recruiting? Who's this Kapono kid and can they
win without Baron Davis?
Andy Katz: First, for more on Jason Kapono, stay glued to your computer for more of our preview this
week. He could have as much impact as any freshman in the country. The playmaking small
forward is expected to start when the Bruins open against Fairfield on Nov. 23. He'll start next
to JaRon Rush and Earl Watson, with Dan Gadzuric and Jerome Moiso inside. Can they win
the title? Probably not, but Watson may give them a more on-court chemistry than Davis, who
was looking a little big more for his shot first.
Ray: Andy There is talk that Fresno State could add a big man to back up Ely this December. Do
you have any insight on this?
Andy Katz: They are still trying to bring Rasheem Beshear, a 6-10 center from Qatar, but visa problems will
likely prevent this from happening. The surprise of the preseason has been the play of 6-9 Noel
Felix, which would make finding another big man a moot point.
JonathOn: Which mid/small conference team(s) do you see impressing this year like Gonzaga and Webber
State did last year?
Andy Katz: Look for Bradley, Siena, Delaware, Gonzaga, New Mexico State to be potential
second-weekend teams in the NCAA Tournament. They all have a shot at getting into the top
25 during the course of the season.
Thanks for everyone's time. We just want to reinforce that this is your home for all college
basketball news, inside information and analysis 12 months out of the year. Stay tuned over the
next 10 days for the most extensive preview on the sport. See you at Madison Square Garden
on Nov. 11. | |
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