| | In analyzing the two big college football games this weekend, ESPN's Mel Kiper picks Tennessee over Florida and Penn State over Miami and his reasoning is quite simple: The Gators don't have the defense to stop the Volunteers and Miami is not deep enough to keep up with the Nittany Lions.
During his weekly chat with ESPN.com users, Kiper also talked about the shakeup in Nebraska, addresses criticism of Florida State's Peter Warrick and tackled several NFL questions.
An edited transcript of Kiper's Sept. 17 chat follows:
| |  | | Mel Kiper says Florida State's Peter Warrick deserves all the hype. |
I AM CANE: Can Miami compete for a national title this year or are they still a year away?
Mel Kiper Jr.: No, I think they're a year away because they don't have the depth that other contenders have.
They caught an Ohio State team rebuilding. Penn State has more offensive depth and a great
defense, plus Miami has to visit Florida State and Blacksburg. If they win one of those three,
that would be a pretty good accomplishment.
Raiderwise: What do you think of this weekend's matchup between Charles Woodson and Randy Moss,
and who would you give the edge? Which team do you like to win and why?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
They will see different coverages and they won't face each other as much. For Oakland, it is so
tough to face Green Bay and Minnesota the first two weeks. The Raiders have the most
challenging schedule. Losing that way to Green Bay was a horrible disappointment for them,
devastating when you have to go to Minnesota the next week. Atlanta actually had more first
downs last week.
#1 Husker Fan: What do you think of Nebraska after the many changes made this week? What's your opinion of
Evans?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
It's a case where enough wasn't spelled out in terms of roles before the season. Crouch at QB and
Newcombe at WB makes sense, having those two skilled players on the field at the same time.
Things haven't fallen into place. They won two games going away. 87-7 and there is still some
unrest there. Southern Miss. presents a problem with more balance on both sides of the ball than
Cal.
Flagoblue: Will Michigan be able to overcome the Carrier Dome's noise and beat SU?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
Yes, I think they will. Syracuse has received adequate play at QB but they haven't faced a
defense like Michigan. Schedule becomes much more difficult and Michigan wants revenge after
last year. They have their talent and they have an edge there. Bullock is an outstanding talent, but
Michigan still has the edge in that area. I feel the Wolverines will win.
Stagdaddy: The Vols-Gators game every year is exciting and the one to watch no matter who else is playing.
I'd like very much to hear your take on who will win and why. Also, if we can beat the dreaded
Gators in the "scary" Swamp, will we pass Florida State and take No. 1 in the polls?
Mel Kiper Jr.: Great game for Sept. 18th. Florida still has the defensive question marks. They gave up tons
of yardage through the air. Tee Martin and company get a shot to tee off. Tennessee has the
better overall personnel. The Swamp is something to respect, as well as Spurrier and the Gators
offense. The Vols have the offense.
David: What do you think of Trent Dilfer?
Mel Kiper Jr.: First of all, again, everyone focuses on the QB. Think again.. He didn't cost the team the game.
Patrick Hape's drop hurt because he then threw an INT. His foot was out of bounds and I can't
believe nobody in the booth told Tony Dungy to ask for a replay. It would have been 14-13. Dilfer
has a terrible second half. Those contributed too. Dilfer should take responsibility for the second
half, but other things were responsible too. One game doesn't make a season, don't write a team or
player off after one game. It's not December yet. By the way, he was a Pro Bowl player two
years ago.
DBow16: Who was/is the best pro prospect of the 90's?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
The highest grade in the 90s: probably Bledsoe or Wadsworth.
Chuck: Do you think Doug Flutie will have less success this year now that defensive coordinators might
have a better idea how to defend him after seeing him last year?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
The whole thing was about Bill Belichick holding him down in two games. The coordinators may
have taken a page out of that book. Flutie has to show that last year wasn't a fluke. There is a
good reason to believe Rob Johnson could see playing time at some point.
Charles Thomas: What do you think Alabama's chances of winning the SEC?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
The West is up for grabs. I still think LSU has a shot if the defense improves. Arkansas has to be
respected and next week vs. Alabama is a good test. Gets tough later.
ND in LA: What do you think of the ND-MSU matchup in South Bend?
Can ND overcome two tough losses to a team that has dominated them in the last two years?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
Notre Dame doesn't have great material. I know Beano Cook and I argue about that. It's not what
it once was, not 2-3 deep like other powers. They don't have the talent that several teams on their
schedule have. Michigan State and Nick Saban have taken unfair criticism. They have athletes at
receiver. Notre Dame at home is my pick. The Irish has come close but burned by poor clock
management.
NOmania: What's word on Ricky Willaims ankle?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
Latest word is he will start. I think San Francisco will beat them, especially coming off last week.
HerdMan: How high do you think Marshall's Chad Pennington will go in next year's draft?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
I would have to say second or third round right now. Chris Redman would rank first, then the next
QB is between Pennington, Tee Martin and a host of others. Drew Brees, if he came out early,
would certainly be in the mix.
Justin: I'd like to ask you your opinions about the Jacksonville Jags and if you think they will go all the
way. Also, what are your opinions about Fred Taylor-short term (this week's injury) and long term?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
Stewart could get an opportunity with Taylor hurt. Jacksonville has Carolina, so this injury falls at
the right time if there is such a thing. The Panthers are really struggling. I thought the rain hurt
Jacksonville last week, though McQuarters' fumble helped. Dom Capers will make a big difference
with that defense. I said Jacksonville will be in the Super Bowl prior to the season and I stick to it.
Chris Bee: Where do you see Shaun Alexander fitting into this year's draft? How long will it take George
Seifert to turn things around here in Carolina?
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KIPER'S FILE
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Kiper Jr. has served as expert analyst for ESPN's annual NFL Draft coverage since 1984, providing in-depth information on the nation's most talented collegiate football players. His pre-draft predictions are frequently the most accurate in the business, often as much as 80 percent correct on first-round selections. Kiper is also a frequent contributor to ESPN's award-winning SportsCenter during the NFL and college football seasons and provides occasional updates throughout the year.
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Mel Kiper Jr.:
It will take Seifert a while...there are a lot of problem areas and the Redskins have their first round
pick.
At running back: Jamal Lewis, Ron Dayne, JR Redmond, Travis Prentice and the fifth spot is up in the
air between Alexander, Rondell Mealey, Chrys Chukwuma, and Thomas Jones of Virginia. Throw
in Reuben Droughns as well. That would put you late first or early second round area.
Erik: What is your opinion on the Barry Sanders issue?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
What will happen? It seems to me that if you are under contract, you play with the team you've
signed with. There won't be a trade under the current salary cap situation. You play 'til your deal is
up. I know there was talk about Tagliabue meeting with his representatives, but this seems like an
easy situation. Tagliabue can't make an exception to the rule..it's not the right thing to do. Sanders
first lost his passion to play, then lost his passion to play for the Lions.
Bowdoin Polar Bear: Who do you consider to be the college team of the decade? FSU or the Huskers?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
That's a hard one because you also have to throw Florida into the mix too.
During the Tommie Frazier era, Nebraska was dominant. I would probably have to say Nebraska.
Tough call. Frazier gave them the ability that Notre Dame had when Tony Rice was there, the
pass/run option, beating you both ways, stretch you or hit you.
Kent: Do you think people are getting too carried away with Lavar Arrington's cockiness, especially
some of the Canes players? I would like to remind the Canes players and fans about how Miami showed up for the Fiesta bowl
a few years back. Wearing the fatigues....talk about cockiness.
Mel Kiper Jr.:
He's the tempo setter. I thought he should have been thrown out last week. He has the ability to
wreak havoc and ability to rush the QB and be all over the field. He makes tackles behind the line,
does it all. He and Peter Warrick are the two best players in college football.
Stensrud: So what's the call? UT or UF?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
Tennessee 29-21.
Rockstar9: Do you think playing Tim Couch this weekend is a good move for his long-term development?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
I think it is the only move. Detmer couldn't hit open receivers. The OL is the key with veterans,
keeping Couch in one piece by not taking hit after hit. They need better skill people. It's the only
move Chris Palmer could make.
Trent: If Peter Warrick is so great, how do you explain his performance in the Fiesta Bowl last year?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
One game. They didn't have the starting QB, did they? People are really negative out there.
Beamer's son: Do you think Virginia Tech has a legitimate shot at the national title if they go undefeated, or do
you feel that another team with one loss will probably get a spot in the national championship?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
Virginia Tech, based on the schedule, has a shot to run the table. They get the most out of what
they have noting their talent. They get it to the level it is most capable of. Special teams come up
huge. Michael Vick is athletic and can do a lot of damage. They're not good enough to just
throw their helmet on the field, like the Temple game last year. They learned from that. It isn't the
same talent as Tennessee, Florida State, etc. The Temple game of last year will actually serve as
a positive this year. They must be ready to play every week, can't take anyone too lightly. If
Tech runs the table, they should be there. That would include a win over Miami.
Hoo World Order: Do you think it's time for UVA to replace George Welsh? What about Terry Bowden? Three
Bowdens in the ACC could be a good idea.
Mel Kiper Jr.:
Are you kidding me? Beano Cook says he's one of the best five coaches in America. Look at
what he has accomplished. That program can't get top talent every year, and he has won at a
tremendously consistent basis. One game doesn't make a season or a career.
Jason: Were do you see the Steelers ending up? Was last week a fluke or is there defense that tough?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
Pittsburgh has a solid defense, not great. Cleveland has expansion talent at the skill positions. I
think Kevin Gilbride has made a huge impression on Kordell Stewart. That team is a potential
wild card team, though I feel Jacksonville will win the division. Baltimore is not as bad as it
looked last week and Pittsburgh is not as good, so watch out this weekend.
Trent: It's not that I am negative, I just have a problem with Warrick getting all of this hype. He makes
great plays against so-so competition. He is a great player, but does he do it when it counts
game in game out. The big ones are the ones that count. I can't think of one game more
important than the one for the national championship.
Mel Kiper Jr.:
To be a great receiver, someone has to get you the football. Success in the sport often depends
on other players doing their job. People forget that, it is not basketball or baseball.
Huskermike: With huge egos now spreading into college football (i.e. Evans), what can a coach do to keep
unity intact?
Mel Kiper Jr.: Define roles up front. It's tough because QBs aren't happy when they don't start early or RBs.
How about Notre Dame with Bettis and Watters. Let them know what will be happening and
the ultimate goal is winning. If players know up front that if they perform they will get time.
Understand expectations.
MfaCane: Prediction on Miami-Penn State?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
As I said earlier, I am going with Penn State.
Ross: Why would Chris Simms want to go to Texas and watch while Major Applewhite gets all the
work and is just a sophomore? Is Simms going to de-throne Applewhite anytime soon?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
That's what we've been talking about all season. Simms didn't worry about the incumbent and
beating him out. He must have felt like he'd beat him out. Applewhite has three years of eligibility
so Simms, unless he's redshirted, or unless Applewhite left early (though he's not physically
gifted enough), Simms doesn't get under center until he's a senior. If he is redshirted, than two
years. Drew Henson will get two full years at Michigan. Texas also has Adam Hall.
Joe: Personally, I think you are very good at your job. Has any NFL team ever offered you a front
office job?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
I was offered a position with the Colts to assist then-GM Ernie Accorsi in 1983. That was about
the time when Accorsi dealt with the possible move and the Elway trade. A lot of things dictated
that I wasn't brought in. Six months later, I started with ESPN.
John in Los Angeles: A lot of people were critical after UCLA lost at Ohio State, but to me, I expected this year to
be a rebuilding season that would end with a 7-4 or 8-3 record. Next year seems like it could
be a big season for Bob Toledo's Bruins. Agree?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
I think every team which loses their top QB suffers. Shawn King, Tim Couch, Daunte
Culpepper, Cade McNown, teams who saw them lose key guys, don't make up for that loss
overnight. Syracuse played two MAC teams so we'll see about them tomorrow. UCLA knew
Danny Farmer was hurt and with the suspensions, it's difficult. Playing in Columbus was too much to
overcome.
Jeff: How do you see the Big 12 this year? Who will be in the championship -- Nebraska vs Texas?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
Nebraska gets A&M at home, which is why most don't like the Aggies. Oklahoma State is a
sleeper team with a fantastic defense. They have a big test at Starkville this week, never an easy
place to play. Mississippi State has revenge. Then off to Lincoln. Tough schedule. OK, to answer
your question, Texas-Nebraska. It would be hard not to go with that.
Paul Pocock: It looks like BYU may be a top 10 team offensively and defensively this year. Do you think they
have a good chance at getting into one of the BCS bowls?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
A little early. They played Washington and Colorado State, looking good. Nevada had 33 first
downs against Colorado State so that should have been an indication of the Rams. BYU's
schedule isn't all that tough. Virginia is rebuilding and that game is in Provo. Air Force is at
home. At Wyoming and San Diego State may be the toughest games. If they did run the table,
would they deserve to be in the BCS?
1 SunDevil Fan: I've watched Jake Plummer work his comeback magic since college. How good is this guy and
will it be safe to call him the next Joe Montana once his consistency and passing efficiency improve?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
Not until he stops throwing INTs. The comebacks are necessary because they fall behind due to
poor play from Plummer. I know injuries and some of those INTs were mistakes. He's got
magical ability, give him credit and the best QBs play the best football in the fourth quarter. He
has to cut down on the costly INTs.
Joe: Who will be better, Champ Bailey or Charles Woodson?
Mel Kiper Jr.:
They both had similar grades coming out. Bailey better all around, Woodson a better cover guy.
Bailey is a better receiver, so I would go with Bailey. Tough call and they are both spectacular
football players.
Thanks for your questions, see you next week.
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